The US State Department says that the United States "does not publicly warn of sanctions".
"The United States remains committed to disrupting Russia's revenue generation, as well as its procurement and financial networks, used to support its war against Ukraine," said the statement provided to Radio Free Europe.
It follows the announcement by the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, that the US will impose sanctions on the former state company, the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), due to its Russian ownership.
Radio Free Europe did not receive concrete details either from the NIS company or from the Ministry of Mines and Energy of Serbia, about what the possible sanctions would bring and how they would affect the citizens.
"The business of NIS is currently developing without obstacles and the company remains focused on continuing the realization of the investments started", says the NIS response to Radio Free Europe.
The United States Ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, said on December 16 that he could not confirm the possible imposition of US sanctions on NIS, but added that he has "great concern that Russia is benefiting" from its purchase the former state enterprise.
In 2008, the Serbian state sold 51 percent of the shares of the NIS company to the Russian state company, Gazprom Neft, at a price of 400 million euros, without a tender.
Milosh Zdravkovic, an energy expert in Belgrade, tells Radio Free Europe that it is difficult to assume what kind of sanctions it might be.
"The worst scenario that we analysts can see is to sanction the import of NIS through JANAF. This would be very bad news", says Zdravkovic.
Oil in Serbia is mainly imported through an oil pipeline operated by the JANAF company in Croatia. Through it, oil is sent to Croatia, Hungary and Serbia.
According to the annual report of the State Energy Agency in Serbia, for the year 2023, almost 80 percent of oil in Serbia was provided by imports.
According to NIS data, the Gazprom Neft company today owns 50 percent of the NIS share capital, the Republic of Serbia owns 29.87 percent of the shares, while the Gazprom company owns 6.15 percent of the shares.
The rest belongs to citizens, employees, former employees and other smaller shareholders.
Gazprom Neft has been under European and US sanctions since 2014, due to Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, and the company has been barred from accessing EU and US markets.
The report by the Serbian Energy Agency shows that previous EU sanctions packages, due to the Russian occupation of Ukraine, have affected the import of Russian oil and the operations of the NIS company.
What has been warned?
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on December 13 that the United States will impose sanctions on the Serbian oil industry "in a few days."
Vucic said that Great Britain will also join the sanctions.
He said that the decision on sanctions will come into force on January 1, 2025, and that it is about "probably the most severe sanctions".
He also said that he will discuss this issue with Russian and American officials.
"We will talk with Russia to see if [ownership] can be reduced below 50 percent... we buy a part. Or not, I don't know", said Vucic.
On December 14, he said that he has not yet seen the official document with which the US will impose sanctions on NIS, but that there is "some kind of official confirmation".
He added that "he is not ready at this moment to talk about possible sanctions against Moscow".
Serbia is one of the few candidate countries for EU membership that did not join the West's sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
What did the State Department say and what is the NIS?
The US State Department's response to Radio Free Europe states that the US will continue to take "appropriate measures to hold accountable those who enable or benefit from Russia's illegal war".
It also states that the US will continue to work "with countries and companies around the world to ensure the security of energy supplies and mitigate price shocks affecting the global economy."
The NIS company did not respond to Radio Free Europe about what the announced sanctions would mean for this company, how they would affect its business and whether there are ways to circumvent them.
NIS said that supply to the chain of NIS gas stations continues regularly and that the Pancevo Oil Refinery - part of NIS, where crude oil is processed - is operating normally and "providing sent to the market all the necessary oil derivatives".
NIS, on the other hand, owns more than 400 gas stations in Serbia and in the countries of the region: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania and Bulgaria.
"The NIS company continues to monitor the current situation and analyze all possible scenarios and possible consequences for the operation of the company. Currently, there are no legal restrictions on the activities of the company and our partners", says the NIS response.
What would be the possible consequences?
Zdravkovic says that the biggest consequence for Serbia would be the interruption of oil supply through JANAF.
"JANAF is mainly owned by the Republic of Croatia. Croatia is a member of the European Union and these sanctions should not affect the operations of an EU member company," he says.
Zdravkovic adds that JANAF would be in big trouble in that case, because NIS is the "main customer".
Asked about the announced sanctions, the JANAF company said that NIS has long been JANAF's biggest business partner, with which it has a "3-year contract for the transportation of 10 million tons of oil until the end of of 2026".
Zdravkovic says that without this import, Serbia would have reserves for about two months.
How did previous Western sanctions affect the NIS?
According to the report of the Energy Agency of Serbia, for the year 2023, in that year, for the first time in the history of the Serbian oil industry, there was no import of crude oil of Russian origin.
"This is a consequence of the sixth package of sanctions against the Russian Federation, from May 2022, which provided for the ban on the use of European infrastructure for the transport and processing of crude oil of Russian origin," the report states.
That year, according to the report, Serbia imported oil mainly from Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Norway.
According to previous data from the Ministry of Mines and Energy of Serbia, about a third of the imported oil was produced in Russia and Kazakhstan, Radio Free Europe's Balkan Service reported in 2022.
While Gazprom Neft is under European and American sanctions, the world's largest gas producer, Gazprom, is not subject to the embargo.
When the European Union imposed new trade sanctions on Russia in 2022, Serbia and Hungary agreed in October of that year to build an oil pipeline that would enable Serbia to be supplied with "cheaper oil from the Urals, was connected to the oil pipeline, Druzhba".
Where will Serbia be connected to the Druzhba oil pipeline?
Serbia plans to connect to the Druzhba oil pipeline through its southern section, which passes through Hungary.
At that time, the president of Serbia said that his country does not consider Croatia a reliable supplier and that it will have to diversify its oil supply.
According to an earlier announcement by the Minister of Energy of Serbia, Dubravka Gedovic Handanovic, the construction of that gas pipeline will begin in the second half of 2025./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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