What happens if the US shuts down Starlink to Ukraine?

Nga A2 CNN
2025-03-11 13:37:00 | Bota

What happens if the US shuts down Starlink to Ukraine?

After the White House incident, the US suspended military aid to Ukraine. Now there are fears that Elon Musk may one day also cut off access to the Starlink satellite service that Ukraine needs for drones.

After the incident at the White House, the US initially suspended military aid to Ukraine. Recently, concerns have grown that Elon Musk may also cut off access to the Starlink satellite service, although he himself says he has not stated such a thing.

Russia has been systematically destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, including electricity and internet, since the beginning of the invasion. Salvation came from space: Immediately after the first Russian attacks, the then Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov asked Texas businessman Elon Musk via Twitter (today X) in March 2022 to open his Starlink satellites for Ukraine. And Musk spontaneously replied on Twitter: "Starlink is active, other receiver systems are on the way."

Since then, the satellite internet service, provided by Musk's company Space X, has been a key support for Ukraine's defensive war. Mainly Ukrainian drones, but also internet-based applications for communication, target identification and capture use Starlink.

However, Ukraine's trust in billionaire Musk was deeply shaken in September 2022. During the first Ukrainian drone attack against the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, radio contact with all the drones was suddenly lost, they crashed, and the counterattack failed. A year later, it emerged that Elon Musk had personally ordered Starlink engineers to shut down the system.

What happens if the US shuts down Starlink to Ukraine?

Concern about losing control

The provision of Starlink to Ukraine was carried out through the private blogging service X without any public debate and without any oversight by parliaments.

Since Trump's re-election, his confidant Musk has had very broad powers, and at the same time has not been subject to any direct parliamentary control. What he does with Starlink is his private decision.

It cannot be ruled out that he will sell the Starlink project to the highest bidder at some point. The strategically important satellite communications system could fall into the wrong hands if, for example, totalitarian states or strategic rivals were able to access this global network.

How likely is Starlink to be shut down?

Before the scandal in the White House, tech billionaire Musk had called press reports of a possible shutdown of Starlink a lie. Ukraine and its allies are looking for alternatives that can be used militarily. But so far, even satellite communication systems offered by Sweden and Germany cannot fill the gap that a shutdown of Starlink would create.

However, economic reasons may also play a role for businessman Musk. Because Musk has invested heavily in the Starlink network and does not want to scare off future interested parties. Currently, only about 4 million people use Starlink. So far, it is available in North and South America, Europe, parts of sub-Saharan and southern Africa, some Asian countries and Australia and New Zealand. So, not necessarily areas with weak infrastructure, which really need satellite internet. This is probably also due to the fact that Starlink satellite internet is very expensive, the receiver alone costs about 400 euros. And the monthly usage fee is 40-80 dollars, depending on the region.

What happens if the US shuts down Starlink to Ukraine?

Among Starlink's main customers such as Poland, Italy, Indonesia and Greenland, doubts are growing about the reliability of the system, which depends solely on the arbitrariness of its owner.

It is therefore possible that the availability of Starlink will be gradually limited ("Downscaling"), initially for less critical areas for the war, such as civilian use in Ukraine, then for parts of military communications and finally for use on the front line, until the Ukrainian government gives in to pressure.

How does Starlink work in Ukraine?

Starlink creates internet access by transporting data through light, like a fiber optic cable. But this transfer is done via satellites. For this purpose, Elon Musk has been building a satellite network for years, where individual satellites relay relevant data to each other.

Musk's space company, SpaceX, has launched a total of 7,770 Starlink satellites into low-Earth orbit since 2019 (as of January 31, 2025). The goal is to expand the network to 42,000 satellites.

To use satellite data, a receiver on the ground is also needed, which acts as a router and connects the devices to the nearest satellite. The receiver automatically points the receiving dish, which resembles a satellite TV dish, at an available satellite and thus establishes an internet connection.

What happens if the US shuts down Starlink to Ukraine?

What are the benefits of Starlink?

Satellite internet is relatively easy to use. Data flows uninterrupted and extremely fast. Because Starlink satellites orbit at an altitude of 328 to 614 kilometers around the earth, which is significantly lower than competitors' satellites.

For comparison: The satellites of the current satellite market leader Hughesnet orbit the Earth at an altitude of 35,000 kilometers. Therefore, data transmission takes about ten times longer than with Starlink.

Competition in orbit

However, Elon Musk is also "filling" our orbit with his private satellites. More than 13,000 satellites in total orbited the Earth by November 2024. Of these, about 8,600 belong to the USA.

The Starlink network will eventually include 42,000 satellites - soon the orbit will be too full. This endangers other satellites and also hinders astronomical observations from the ground. Starlink satellites are already responsible for most near-collision events with other satellites. And once a satellite automatically changes its trajectory to avoid a potential collision, this can trigger a fatal chain reaction.

Another problem is the relatively short lifespan of the Starlink satellites, which stop working after about five years. Although they mostly burn up when they re-enter the Earth's atmosphere, new satellites must be constantly launched into space to prevent gaps in the network. /DW/ (A2 Televizion)

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