Scenarios of how the war in Ukraine could end...

Nga A2 CNN
2025-05-01 08:48:00 | Bota

Scenarios of how the war in Ukraine could end...

Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral announcement of a three-day pause in the war against Ukraine, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, was not met with applause in Brussels.

"Russia can stop the killings and bombings at any time. Therefore, there is no need to wait until May 8," EU foreign affairs spokeswoman Anitta Hipper told reporters on Tuesday.

Critics say the Kremlin, citing "humanitarian reasons" for its latest ceasefire promise, is simply trying to curry favor with Washington after US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine.

Trump's criticism of Moscow marked a change in tone from the US president's previous verbal criticism of his Ukrainian counterpart.

Russia's ceasefire announcement also came after the weekend's scenes of European leaders meeting with the Ukrainian president and a meeting between Zelensky and Trump at the Vatican.

While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called this week "critical", the United States says it is now considering whether to completely abandon peace mediation efforts, which, about 100 days after Trump took office, remain fruitless.

Trump and Zelensky met in Rome, where both leaders were invited to attend the funeral of Pope Francis.

A tale of two peace plans
As world leaders prepared to travel to Rome for Pope Francis' funeral, the Reuters news agency published two pieces of information: a ceasefire plan reportedly proposed by the United States after talks with Moscow and Kiev, and a counterplan drawn up by European and Ukrainian officials.

Rival texts show that the United States and Europe disagree on the terms for ending the conflict.

While the US-drafted document reportedly envisages full recognition of Crimea and de facto recognition of several other Ukrainian regions occupied by Russia, the European text simply states that "territorial issues" should be "resolved after a complete and unconditional ceasefire."

The European-Ukrainian plan also asserts that Ukraine's military should not be limited and calls for a strong US-backed security guarantee, similar to NATO's Article 5, which states that an attack on one member of the military alliance is an attack on all.

For its part, the US document seen by Reuters states that Ukraine "will not seek NATO membership" and says only that Ukraine will receive a "strong security guarantee."

Under their plan, the United States would lift sanctions on Russia, while the European text says that US sanctions should only be eased "gradually, once lasting peace has been achieved."

The United Kingdom and France have led efforts to determine the details of how European forces could deter future Russian attacks on Ukraine, after the United States ruled out involving its troops.

Red lines and guarantees
"What has struck me in recent days is that Europeans are starting to express quite clearly what they want," Camille Grand, a former NATO official and now an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW in Brussels.

Grand pointed to weeks of frenetic European diplomacy since Trump took office, with talks in Paris, London, Brussels and Rome between top leaders and military officials to determine how European states, led by France and Britain, could oversee a potential peace deal in Ukraine through a so-called guarantor force.

"They are talking seriously and trying to address each other's problems: What are you missing? Are you willing to go on the ground? No, but can you provide planes? Would you be willing to do that if the force was stationed in Poland?" Grand explained.

"There's been a lot of progress from something that seemed completely disconnected from reality to something where there's a much clearer idea of ​​what we're willing to do and how we want to do it."

However, European and American officials remain at odds over whether and how Washington will provide a "shield" to protect European peacekeepers from potential Russian attacks.

Europe wants the US and Ukraine to continue the dialogue
Almut Möller, an analyst at the European Policy Center, says Europe's efforts have not gone unnoticed. "The act of saying that we are ready to take a step forward, that we are here to engage with European security in a very meaningful way, is the clearest possible signal to the US that Europe has understood the message from across the Atlantic," he told DW in Brussels.

"But does that guarantee a seat at the table?" "No," he added.

Now that the United States is threatening to walk away from the negotiating table altogether, Europe's priority may be to keep Washington on board and willing to listen to Kiev.

"We are always stronger together. We are always stronger with our allies," said the EU's Anitta Hipper, when asked by DW about the EU's message to the White House.

"Our priority should always be supporting Ukraine, because that sends the right message to all potential aggressors, not just Russia," Hipper added, in a veiled allusion to the United States' desire to reduce military support for Europe and shift its focus toward China and the Indo-Pacific.

Despite some internal divisions, the EU has pledged to continue its support for Ukraine.

A Plan B without the US?
But if the US leaves the negotiating table, it is difficult to imagine a clear Plan B for European countries, which regularly pledge to support Ukraine "for as long as necessary," without specifying exactly what "for as long as necessary" means.

From a financial perspective, the EU can maintain political and military support for Ukraine. According to Hipper, the bloc has so far this year pledged about 23 billion euros ($26.2 billion) in aid to Kiev.

However, given that the Ukrainian and European militaries remain heavily dependent on American logistics, satellites, and intelligence capabilities, many in Europe continue to see acting alone as the worst-case scenario.

Grand believes it would be preferable for the US to withdraw from efforts to reach a quick agreement rather than show open hostility towards Kiev, as was clearly evident in the discussion between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office in February.

"Compared to that situation, having a less interested and less engaged US might not be as dramatic," Grand said, adding that Europeans should try to "use the current moment to see if Trump's recent admission that Putin may be a problem, not the solution, can help find a better solution." /REL (A2 Televizion)

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