Charles Kupchan, from the Council on Foreign Relations in the US, says that US President Donald Trump's latest statement on Kosovo and Serbia should be seen in the context of a leader who is trying to bring public attention back to his role as a "brilliant negotiator".
According to him, Trump's promises to end the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East have not been reflected in reality, as the wars continue with intensity and the main actors show no signs of willingness to compromise.
"That said, since he is not achieving many results in the Middle East and in diplomacy with Ukraine and Russia, he can turn his attention to Kosovo and Serbia and try to achieve some victory," Kupchan says in the interview given to Radio Free Europe.
Kupchan, former director of European affairs at the US National Security Council, also says that Kosovo's acting Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, "may have overused the nationalist card."
He suggests a more pragmatic approach, which, he says, would help Kosovo advance its interests.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: President Trump recently said that he stopped a war between Kosovo and Serbia during his first term and promised to “make it right again.” In your opinion, how accurate is this statement and what impact have U.S. diplomatic efforts in 2020 had on the ground?
Charles Kupchan: I think Trump's post should be seen in the context of a president who feels that his claims to be a great negotiator are being questioned.
He has said he will end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours and that he will stop the war in the Middle East, while the war in Ukraine continues with intensity, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin shows no sign of being willing to negotiate in good faith, while Israel not only continues the war against Hamas in Gaza, but has also opened a new front with Iran.
So, I think Trump was trying to remind the public of his previous achievements. But even in this case, where he mentioned Kosovo and Serbia, he mostly got the facts wrong, because Kosovo and Serbia were not at war - they hadn't been at war since 1999.
Did the Trump administration, with [Kosovo-Serbia dialogue envoy Richard] Grenell, succeed in advancing an agreement for economic cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia? Yes. Did they succeed in brokering an agreement for Kosovo to establish diplomatic relations with Israel? Yes.
These are not trivial. But the idea that Trump has - somehow - avoided or ended the war is simply incorrect.
Kosovo and Serbia - "more manageable"
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Considering what you just said - that Trump has so far failed to achieve any success in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict and is now also facing tensions between Israel and Iran - do you see any possibility that he will return to the Kosovo-Serbia process as a more manageable area of foreign policy?
Charles Kupchan: Yeah, I think that's not out of the question at all. Trump, right now, has a lot of work to do. He's got the big war in Ukraine, the big war in the Middle East, he's got 17 or 18 different negotiating parties on tariffs and trade that are going on, and his domestic political situation is complicated, especially on immigration and deportation issues.
We've also seen violence on the streets of Los Angeles and attacks on lawmakers in Minnesota. So I don't think Trump or his team have much capacity right now for other issues.
That said, since he is not achieving many results in the Middle East and in diplomacy with Ukraine and Russia, he could turn his attention to Kosovo and Serbia and try to achieve some victory.
Is this the right time for this? Probably not. Because the political situation is unstable in both Belgrade and Pristina.
Right now, no one is in a position to make difficult compromises, but I think that at the right time, Trump could return to negotiate a deal and encourage Serbia and Kosovo to move forward with the agreement that the European Union brokered.
Radio Free Europe: What would his re-engagement in the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia look like?
Charles Kupchan: The reengagement [would be reflected] in the appointment of Richard Grenell or some other special representative, who would roll up his or her sleeves and go to the region, meet with the leaders there, and try to push both countries toward implementing the Agreement [toward normalizing relations].
In recent years, implementation has almost completely stalled. For this reason, I think it will take a new commitment from the US and a new pressure from the US, in cooperation with the EU, to restart the dialogue.
"Kurti may have overdone it with the nationalist card"
Radio Free Europe: Kosovo's acting Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, has responded to Trump's statement by saying that normalization of relations is possible, but only if the US and others increase pressure on Serbia to implement the agreements reached in 2023. Do you think Washington should change its approach and exert more direct pressure on Belgrade?
Charles Kupchan: I think the US and the EU need to put a lot of pressure on both sides. One of the less positive developments for Kosovo in recent years, in my opinion, is that Prime Minister Kurti may have overused the nationalist card. He has taken some steps [to extend authority] to the north, he has hesitated to take steps to create the Association of Serb-majority municipalities, he has taken other actions that, in some respects, have made Pristina look like the problem, not Belgrade.
Therefore, we have seen sanctions from the European Union and strong criticism from Washington during the Biden administration.
I think the dialogue is at an impasse and considerable pressure will be needed on both sides to move it forward.
Radio Free Europe: Kurti has previously presented three demands for the normalization of relations: the handover of Milan Radoić from Serbia, the formal signing of the Basic Agreement with the Implementation Annex, and the withdrawal of the December 2023 letter rejecting Kosovo's territorial integrity. How realistic and effective do you consider these demands?
Charles Kupchan: I think the dialogue should move forward in phases, step by step. The EU did the right thing by brokering the agreement without immediately demanding that Serbia recognize Kosovo as an independent state.
I think we know that, in the end, this issue will end with the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state by Serbia, but, beforehand, each side must take the necessary steps to show goodwill and move forward towards the normalization of relations between them.
The Serbian government knows that, ultimately, it will not join the European Union without recognizing Kosovo. The question now is how to create a new political terrain that gives leaders in Pristina and Belgrade the courage and support they need to make difficult decisions - even if they are unpopular with the public.
Radio Free Europe: Kurti has also said that the US remains Kosovo's "irreplaceable partner" in defense, diplomacy, and development. Do you think Kosovo can continue to rely on strong American support, at a time when global repositioning is taking place and Trump's foreign policy is more transactional?
Charles Kupchan: There has been a great deal of trust in the United States toward Kosovo since NATO's intervention in 1999 and the efforts that have been made since then to help Kosovo develop as a successful democracy.
Do I think that during a Trump presidency we will see less focus on Europe and more on the Indo-Pacific? Yes, it is very likely. I think Trump has made it clear that he wants Europe to spend more on defense and take more responsibility for solving challenges in its neighborhood.
Do I expect Trump to withdraw completely from Europe? Do I think that in four years there will be no more American troops in Europe? No, I don't believe so. I think what we will see will be a rebalancing of the presence, but not a withdrawal.
And, in this regard, I think that Kosovo should expect good policies and a positive engagement from Washington. Therefore, it is in the interest of Kosovo and Prime Minister Kurti to pursue policies that are more supportive of the dialogue process.
"The Ohrid Agreement is good - compromises are needed"
Radio Free Europe: Given your long experience in European affairs, what would a realistic plan for the sustainable normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia look like?
Charles Kupchan: I think the EU-brokered Ohrid Agreement is good. Now, in my opinion, it's more about implementation than about the direction the process will take going forward.
In general, when you look at protracted conflicts like this, where both sides are entrenched in their positions, the way forward is with small, gradual steps that demonstrate goodwill.
Each side must make compromises and concessions that signal to the other side that it wants to cooperate and move toward turning enemies into friends.
Therefore, I think the next step should include a detailed work plan with concrete steps. What will Kosovo do? What will Serbia do? When will they do it? What are the steps that will be taken to lead Pristina and Belgrade towards a better agreement, which will ultimately enable the normalization of relations and the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state...
Radio Free Europe: What can the US do to bring the parties back to the negotiating table?
Charles Kupchan: One, the US needs to show up. It needs to engage. It needs to have its diplomats in the region be active and working on this issue.
Under two, I think there needs to be an appropriate combination of 'carrots and sticks'. Sticks to tell them: if you delay action, if you do provocative things, then you will pay the price. Carrots to tell them that the light at the end of the tunnel shines brightly, and that light shows that if you make the difficult decisions and make the necessary compromises, you will end up fully integrated into European and Atlantic institutions.
Radio Free Europe: And one question, although on internal matters... Kosovo has not yet formed its institutions since the February elections. What advice would you give to Kosovar politicians?
Charles Kupchan: As far as I understand, the main obstacle now is with the Speaker of the Assembly, with a certain person. Even though the Assembly has convened several dozen times, he has not managed to make a decision. And, you know, the special ingredient of democracy is compromise, it is dialogue - it is what makes democracy work.
Therefore, I would encourage Kurti and his political allies, as well as the opposition, to accept that they cannot continue without a government, because the situation is serious. To sit down together and find a compromise to form a government and resume work in Pristina./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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