Analysis: Will the next Pope be from Africa?

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2025-04-26 13:50:00 | Bota

Analysis: Will the next Pope be from Africa?

The 12 most likely candidates to succeed Pope Francis come from all continents. Two cardinals from Africa also have a good chance.

The death of Pope Francis also raises hopes among African Catholics for a successor from Africa. Among the 12 most likely candidates for the new spiritual leader of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics are two cardinals from Africa: Peter Turkson from Ghana and Fridolin Ambongo from Congo.

The pope is elected in a secret and strictly ritualized process called a conclave - which takes place in the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican. Only cardinals under the age of 80 have the right to vote, and about 120 cardinals participate in the vote.

These are some of the contenders with the most chances:

Cardinal Peter Turkson (76, Ghana, Vatican official and diplomat)

Potentially the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa. Turkson works in Ghana as a pastor, but he also possesses diplomatic skills and leadership experience within the Vatican. Pope Francis sent him to South Sudan as a special envoy for peace.

His communication skills, as well as the fact that he comes from the region where the Church is experiencing the greatest membership growth, while it is fading in Europe - further strengthen his profile.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (65, Congo, Archbishop of Kinshasa)

A rising star from Africa. Ambongo combines strong traditional views with a commitment to social justice. He is an important voice for a rapidly growing African church. His outspoken opposition to the blessing of same-sex couples has raised his international profile among conservatives.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (67, Philippines, head of the Vatican Office for Evangelization)

Dubbed the “Francis of Asia” because of his focus on social justice, Tagle is seen in some circles as the frontrunner to become the first pope from Asia — just as Francis was the first pope from the Americas. On paper, Tagle has all the qualifications to be pope.

However, his chances may be diminished by allegations of abusive behavior within Caritas International, the global Catholic humanitarian network he led for years. The Holy See removed him from that position in 2022.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (70, Italy, Vatican Secretary of State)

A potential bridge between factions in the Church, Parolin has been Francis' secretary of state since 2013 and is a leading candidate for the papacy. His office is second in the hierarchy, just after the Pope.

Conservatives criticized him for his role in brokering a deal with Beijing on the appointment of bishops in communist China. His election would return the papacy to Italy, after three non-Italian popes.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet (79, Canada, former head of the Vatican episcopal office)

A veteran of the Vatican structures with international experience, Marc Ouellet has long been considered one of the leading candidates for pope. He is theologically conservative, which makes him particularly highly regarded by traditionalists. In recent years, he has been the target of accusations of inappropriate behavior, but these have been denied.

Matteo Zuppi (69, Italy, Archbishop of Bologna)

Often called the "Bergoglio of Italy" because of his resemblance to Pope Francis, Zuppi is a "street priest" who advocates for the poor and immigrants and eschews luxury - sometimes using a bicycle instead of an official car. Conservative church currents may not support him because he is known for his progressive views.

Jean-Marc Aveline (66, France, Archbishop of Marseille)

He is known for his sense of humor and his close relationship with Francis, especially on immigration and Muslim-Christian relations. If elected, Aveline would be the first French pope since the 14th century and the youngest since John Paul II. He understands Italian but is not fluent - which could be a problem since he would also be the bishop of Rome.

Cardinal Peter Erdo (72, Hungary, Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest)

A strong representative of traditional Catholic teaching, he nevertheless managed to build bridges with Francis' progressive environment. He was also one of the candidates during the 2013 conclave. Erdoğan speaks several languages, including Italian, and although he is not considered particularly charismatic, he could appeal to those who want a stable mandate.

Cardinal Mario Grech (68, Malta, Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops)

Grech was a conservative at the beginning of his career, and later he became a leading supporter of Francis' reforms. In 2014, he called for a more tolerant attitude towards LGBTQ+ Catholics, in a famous speech that was praised even by the Pope. His high position in the Vatican and good connections with various currents make him a serious candidate.

Cardinal Juan José Omella (79, Spain, Archbishop of Barcelona)

Omella lives a modest life next to Pope Francis despite his high ecclesiastical position. He was made a cardinal in 2016 and joined the pope's nine-member advisory body in 2023. His closeness to Francis could be an obstacle if the conclave wants to change direction.

Cardinal Joseph Tobin (72, USA, Archbishop of Newark)

Although it is unlikely that the Pope will be from the US, Tobin is the most realistic candidate among Americans. Born in Detroit, he speaks fluent Italian, Spanish, French and Portuguese. He has been praised for his handling of a serious sexual abuse scandal. He is also known for his openness towards LGBTQ+ people.

Cardinal Angelo Scola (83, Italy, former Archbishop of Milan)

In the 2013 conclave, Scola was one of the frontrunners. His supporters praise his theological acumen and his good standing among those who favor a more centralized church. However, he passed the upper age limit of 80 to vote in the conclave. It is technically possible to elect a pope outside of an electoral body, but this is a rarity in the modern era.

But let's not forget the old saying: "Young cardinals elect an old pope." This cynical aphorism reflects a traditional pattern in the conclave - suggesting that younger and more ambitious cardinals prefer to elect an older pope - perhaps someone who will not stay in office for long./ DW (A2 Televizion)

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