Ukraine and the United States are expected to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals, marking an important step towards strengthening economic ties between the two countries.
However, security experts tell Voice of America that the agreement has raised concerns about its potential broader implications, A2 reports.
Ukraine's government cabinet approved the agreement on Wednesday and US President Donald Trump confirmed that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy will visit the White House on Friday to sign it.
The agreement includes provisions for co-ownership and management of a post-war reconstruction fund for Ukraine, to which Ukraine will contribute 50% of the country's natural resource revenues.
The agreement stipulates that the US will have a "long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine."
But it does not directly refer to efforts to end Russian aggression in Ukraine, nor does it mention future security arrangements for the Eastern European country, except in one instance: "The United States government supports Ukraine's efforts to obtain the necessary security guarantees to establish a lasting peace."
While the agreement aims to unlock Ukraine's mineral wealth and bolster its economic recovery, security experts warn that it may fall short of meeting Ukraine's ongoing security challenges amid continued Russian aggression.
American business outlook
Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, explains to Voice of America that the agreement aims to create a new US-Ukrainian fund, focusing on state-owned enterprises and Ukraine's rich underground resources, including gas, oil and critical minerals.
Mr. Hunder expresses optimism about the potential impact the deal could have: "We are excited. Professional fund managers can make these ventures profitable very quickly. It's a win-win for Ukrainian and American taxpayers," he told VOA on Wednesday.
Mr. Hunder added that the fund could unlock profits quickly with professional management of Ukraine's state-owned enterprises, which currently face problems of mismanagement.
"Ukraine has the second largest number of state-owned enterprises in the world, many of which are managed, and some are even mismanaged, by the Ukrainian state. So, I think if we introduce new professional fund managers into these entities, we can quickly secure profits," he said.
The Lord said that discussions about Ukraine's economic potential were on the agenda between the two countries in 2024, "starting when Senator Lindsey Graham came in March and May of 2024, and we have looked at this topic and we see potential."
"To take advantage of this opportunity, the war must end, and this agreement is a step towards a peaceful resolution. I think that's where the new administration under President Trump is focused - finding ways to stop the killing of Ukrainians by the Russians. We expect a ceasefire this year, in 2025, and that's when Ukraine will have the greatest opportunity for a country to recover since World War II," he told VOA.
Roman Opimakh, former director general of the Geological Survey of Ukraine, agrees that the deal could benefit both countries: It will help the US diversify its supply of rare metals and "reduce dependence on China," he says.
For Ukraine, Mr. Opimakh explains, the agreement could pave the way for post-war re-industrialization and economic growth. “We can renew the industrial potential of our country and increase Ukraine's role globally,” Mr. Opimakh said in a telephone interview.
Although the agreement demonstrates a strong US interest in Ukraine's economic future, security experts warn that it is not a comprehensive solution to Ukraine's security challenges. I
Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, currently head of the Center for Defense Strategies in Ukraine, told VOA in a phone interview that the agreement has broader implications:
"The United States presented this agreement as a demonstration of interest in Ukraine, signaling support for Ukraine's stability. Investments of this magnitude serve as a basis for attracting more resources to the Ukrainian economy."
Mr. Zagorodnyuk warned that economic ties "are not enough" to guarantee Ukraine's sovereignty in the face of Russian aggression. To prevent future attacks, Ukraine needs military power - either on its own or in partnership with NATO and European allies, he told VOA.
"We understand that Russia may try to manipulate the situation and convey the message to Mr. Trump's administration that even if they continue the aggression for some reason, they will continue to respect American interests, or something similar," he said.
Asked by Voice of America what Ukraine needs from the US for long-term security, Mr. Zagorodnyuk said that in an ideal situation, the country would become part of NATO. However, “if NATO is not an option, there should be a package that allows Ukraine to defend itself against aggression. This package should be strong and this should be clear to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin,” he said.
Details of the agreement
According to VOA sources, whose names cannot be mentioned because they are not authorized to speak on the matter, negotiations regarding the details of the agreement continued until the cabinet meeting late Wednesday afternoon, Kiev time.
According to media reports, Ukraine negotiated more favorable terms than the US had initially proposed, reducing the US's initial demand for $500 billion over its natural resources.
The agreement does not include explicit security guarantees from the United States, which Kiev had initially requested. The US will have decision-making authority within the fund under its own legal framework, while the terms of ownership will be determined in subsequent agreements.
Geopolitical considerations
Despite hailing the deal as a step toward strengthening Ukraine's economy, President Trump recently stirred controversy when he characterized Mr. Zelensky as an "unelected dictator" and pressured him to quickly finalize the deal. The US administration has presented the deal as a way for the US to recoup tens of billions of dollars in military aid sent to Ukraine.
But it is not yet clear whether this economic partnership can foster lasting peace and stability in Ukraine. / Voice of America (A2 Televizion)
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