More tariffs, a slowdown in immigration along the Mexican border, a departure from the Paris Agreement, and a slew of apologies. Is this what the US and the world can expect in the early days of Donald Trump 2.0?
Donald Trump's first days in office will be symbolically important, and his actions are likely to be a mixed bag of domestic and international politics. He will want to show voters that he is demonstrating America's power abroad.
Implementation of the president's executive orders
To move things along quickly, Trump will rely on presidential executive orders, which are directives issued directly by the president. These orders bypass Congress and can cover a wide range of issues, including national security, foreign policy and more. A significant number of them are expected to be ready for signature on Jan. 20.
In a televised interview on “Meet the Press” on Dec. 8, Trump confirmed that he would sign “a lot” of executive orders on Day 1 — related to the economy, energy and, most importantly, the border with Mexico. However, executive orders do not have sweeping power and can only be used to direct the actions of the executive branch, says Dan Mallinson, an associate professor of public policy and administration at Penn State Harrisburg in Pennsylvania.
These powers could be broad, including his promise to close the border, he told DW. "But other orders simply start the slow process of creating federal rules, which could take years."
Immigration and mass deportations
Since arriving on the political scene in the country, Trump has been fixated on the border with Mexico and the people who cross it to enter the U.S. In his first term, he wanted to complete a wall between the two countries.
Four years later, stopping irregular migration by securing the country's borders was one of the key issues that got Trump reelected. He is likely to return to the "stay in Mexico" policy, which requires asylum seekers to wait in Mexico while their claims are processed. For those already in the country illegally, Trump has called for the largest mass deportation in the country's history, focusing first on criminals before moving on to other undocumented immigrants.
Despite this plan — and any executive order to speed up deportations — making it happen would take time and the support of state and local agencies. It would also face legal challenges. In addition to cracking down on irregular migration, Trump is likely to further slow down legal migration, including making work permits, green cards, and visas more difficult and expensive to obtain. That could affect skilled workers and prospective college students.
Trump confirmed on "Meet the Press" that ending citizenship rights for children born in this country is a Day 1 priority, if possible, through executive action. "We're going to end this because it's ridiculous," he said. That could be difficult, since the principle that anyone born on American soil is an American citizen is also enshrined in the Constitution.
Tariffs on imports
Trade is another area that has received a lot of attention from Trump. Most recently, he suggested a 10% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. Mexico, Canada and China, the country's largest trading partners, would be hit with even higher tariffs.
"It's not yet clear to what extent this will happen or whether the threat of tariffs is being used to push some countries into trade negotiations," Mallinson said. However, based on his data, he thinks Trump will introduce at least some new tariffs.
While the president has the authority to impose tariffs on specific categories of imports, imposing blanket tariffs on all goods is more complex. Such a move would cause chaos and be challenged in court.
Moreover, tariffs could add to domestic problems. "Anger over inflation helped Trump win again, but he could quickly lose support if his economic policies raise prices or hamper the economy," Mallinson said.
Paris Climate Agreement
The environment is less important to American voters than the economy or immigration. Yet Trump has it on his agenda. During his first term as president, he withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change. Joe Biden reversed Trump's decision and joined the treaty on his first day in office.
Now Trump has promised to expand crude oil production. As he focuses on fracking and fossil fuels, it should come as no surprise if he pulls out of the Climate Accord again as one of his first official acts. Trump has shown disdain for renewable energy production from wind and electric vehicles. That skepticism could lead to more executive orders that roll back environmental protections and slow the pace of renewable energy projects.
Forgiveness of sentences
Presidential pardons, a tool that gives the president the authority to pardon people convicted of federal crimes or end a prison sentence, could also come into effect on day one. Trump has made it clear that he could pardon most of the hundreds of people convicted of the attack on the U.S. Capitol building on Jan. 6, 2021.
"I'll probably do it very soon," he confirmed on "Meet the Press," saying it would be a day-one priority. But whether Trump will try to pardon himself for any federal crimes is an open question.
Ultimately, only Trump's team knows what is planned for his first days in office. But he will have to act quickly as midterm elections in two years could end Republican majorities in the Senate or House of Representatives.
"Presidents come into office with a sense of mandate and rapidly diminishing political capital," Mallinson concluded. "He can't run again in 2028, so whatever he wants to accomplish has to happen in one term."/ DW (A2 Televizion)
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