Against the backdrop of the tense global situation, the issue of strengthening defense and consequently increasing spending is being raised. This discussion is increasing pressure in the preliminary talks to form a governing coalition.
Germany is currently in the midst of efforts to form a government and time is running out. The CDU/CSU and the SPD are continuing preliminary talks. These rounds have focused on financial issues, including defense and aid to Ukraine. The reason for the intensification of this discussion is related to the tense situation created in the White House, when US President Donald Trump threatened Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj that he would not support him in the war with Russia. Trump severely accused Zelenskyj.
What is possible and where should the money be generated?
That is why in the coalition talks in Germany, the CDU/CSU and SPD are aiming to take steps to secure billions as soon as possible to strengthen the army, but also to create more independence for Europe and to provide stronger support for Ukraine. In the meantime, it is clear that the Europeans need to spend much more money on their own defense and to help Ukraine, the Reuters news agency notes, referring to the opinions currently prevailing in the ranks of both the CDU/CSU and the SPD parties.
How can we secure finances?
Parliament could pass a reform of the debt brake, which would allow for higher borrowing. If this is done, the money could be withdrawn from the regular budget. But there is another option, which is to decouple defense spending from the debt brake, Chancellor Scholz recently proposed.
Three years ago, Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed the creation of a special fund to strengthen the military. The debt for the creation of a special fund is calculated from state debts and the European debt regulation. The current budgetary situation in Germany is tense. In the first round of preliminary coalition talks on Friday (28.02), Finance Minister Jörg had a not optimistic presentation, as reported by Reuters.
Experts: 400 billion euros for defense
Economic experts recommend 400 billion euros for the military, in order to send a clear signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. For infrastructure, experts estimate 400 to 500 billion euros to be made available by 2025.
According to the media, these proposals come from economists Clemens Fuest (President of the Ifo Institute), Michael Hüther (Director of the German Economic Institute), Moritz Schularick (President of the Kiel Institute IfW) and Jens Südekum (Heinrich-Heine University, Düsseldorf). This round of experts was organized at the initiative of the Saarland Finance Minister, Jakob von Weizsäcker.
Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit announced that Chancellor Olaf Scholz has invited the SPD and CDU/CSU party leaders to the cabinet on Wednesday (5.03.2025). The meeting is intended to discuss how to proceed with aid for Ukraine, taking into account the special EU summit on Ukraine that will take place on Thursday (6.03.2025).
What are the chances in the Bundestag?
A qualified majority vote is needed in parliament to reform the debt brake and create a special fund. The coalition parties CDU/CSU and SPD do not together have the necessary number of deputies in the new parliament, which is expected to be formed by March 25. The opposition parties AfD and The Left have the power of a blocking minority. Both parties are opposed to support for Ukraine. Therefore, either of the two parties currently negotiating a coalition would have to secure the support of environmentalists. The incoming Christian Democratic Chancellor Friedrich Merz has proposed that this issue be put to a vote in the current parliament./ DW (A2 Televizion)
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