Russian military analysts have been examining possible options for missile attacks on Japan, using a detailed multi-phase campaign aimed at neutralizing Tokyo's defensive infrastructure.
Although the scenario was presented as a theoretical response to future missile deployments by the US and Japan, according to Defense Blog the tone and technical elaboration of the analysis raised concerns among security analysts in the region.
According to an analysis published in the pro-Kremlin media outlet Voennaya Khronika (Military Chronicle), Russia considers the deployment of Japanese Type 12 systems and American MRC Typhon missiles, which have a range of more than two thousand kilometers, a direct threat to its eastern territory.
Analysts say their response would require a complex, multi-pronged attack using precision weapons launched from the air, sea and land.
The proposed first phase would involve destroying key Japanese air and missile defense centers, particularly the Patriot PAC-3 systems located in Hakodate, Iruma, and Gifu.
The report claims that each of these locations would require between 25 and 45 cruise missiles, such as the Kh-101 or Iskander systems. They also mention an alternative of 10 to 12 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to completely bypass the possibility of interception.
In parallel, Russian analysts suggest targeting Japanese early warning radars, including the J/FPS-3UG stations in Tobetsu and Kyogamisaki, as well as the J/FPS-4 station on Mount Tokao.
"The goal is to blind Japan's early warning and air defense network," the report said.
According to the analysis, approximately seven Kh-101 missiles would be needed to effectively neutralize each radar post.
The second phase of the attack would target Japanese naval bases at Maizuru and Ominato, which, according to the report, could be disabled with 20 to 25 Kalibr cruise missiles for each location.
The analysis highlights that disabling these ports would significantly reduce the capability of Japan's self-defense forces.
The third phase would target the maritime industry, specifically the shipyards operated by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Nagasaki, Kobe, Shimonoseki and Yokohama.
According to the report, the mentioned countries are essential not only for Japan, but also for the maintenance of US naval forces previously deployed in the region. A successful attack, according to the analysis, would damage the security network of the US and Japan.
It is estimated that between 200 and 250 Kh-101 missiles will be needed to implement the entire plan, although the use of the Kinzhal system in certain scenarios could reduce the required number of cruise missiles, but with additional operational complexity.
Analysts say the experience gained in Ukraine has helped refine the coordination and techniques of Russian strikes aimed at destroying modern air defense systems. The Voennaya Khronika article does not specify a timeline for the operation, but it highlights Russia's growing willingness to consider offensive operations against NATO partner countries in East Asia, Defense Blog writes. (A2 Televizion)
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