It is difficult to overlook the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20 when European Union policy for 2025 is being envisioned.
Radio Free Europe has spoken to several officials in the European bloc in recent weeks, and all seem to be waiting to see how they will react to the many different challenges that the new US administration may present to the bloc. This unpredictability, which at first seems to make them nervous, has recently been manifested in Trump's interest in Greenland, a Danish territory.
But there are other issues that European officials are preparing for. One of them will be tariffs, believing that Trump's campaign promise of a universal tariff of 10 to 20 percent on imports could happen and would be manageable, although there are fears that certain products will be hit with higher tariffs.
Another issue concerns the demand for greater defense spending, with the incoming president recently suggesting that 5 percent of Gross Domestic Product be devoted to the military, while most European NATO members barely manage to meet the previous target of 2 percent.
The future of Ukraine will certainly be in the spotlight, especially if any peace deal or ceasefire can happen during 2025. Again, in Brussels, it seems that it is Trump, not the Europeans, who will have to pay attention to this issue. In many ways, the goal for them is to at least secure a "seat at the table" - which is not entirely certain. The fact is that the Europeans are running out of ideas and initiatives when it comes to Kiev.
It is worth mentioning here the recent proposal made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has asked that frozen Russian assets in the West, worth billions of dollars, be given to Ukraine to buy American weapons. This is a perfect example of avoiding Europe in several ways. Firstly, because the money would go to the US budget instead of European states, and secondly, because most of Russian money is in the EU. This means that it would potentially undermine the Eurozone as a good place for investment from third countries. The EU has used these frozen assets as collateral for the latest G7 loan to Ukraine , which will cover Kiev's expenses until at least 2025. And, this is the most that Europe is willing to do so far.
What is certain is that the EU will aim to inflict more pain on Russia through sanctions. During Hungary's presidency of the EU Council in the second half of last year, Brussels adopted the weakest measures, in order to avoid clashing with Budapest, which is critical of any restrictive measures against Moscow.
Now, with Poland taking over the presidency in Brussels, there is hope for a new package to be ready by the third anniversary of the start of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24. There are various ideas, such as targeting Russian liquefied natural gas, and these ideas will be pushed forward by some countries, but it is unlikely that there will be agreement among the 27 member states, necessary for the package to be approved.
But there are other aspects to this issue. Hungary has not yet given up its opposition to the EU's current economic sanctions on Russia. The deadline for approval is January 31, and diplomats REL spoke to said that Budapest has demanded that Trump's inauguration take place first before the bloc makes any decision.
They also said that Hungary has not yet given any signals that any aspect of the sanctions should be eased or whether Budapest wants some frozen EU funds to be released in order to say yes to the sanctions. However, this issue could be resolved during the foreign ministers' meeting on January 27 in Brussels, or at an emergency summit later this week.
The dialogue for the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, mediated by the EU since 2011, will continue to be key for the region.
There will be efforts to revive talks at the highest level after the February 9 parliamentary elections in Kosovo.
After the elections, the new EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is expected to make her first tour of the Western Balkans region. The question is whether she will be able to achieve any results, given that the current Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, and the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, have so far shown little will to make the talks succeed.
To help her, she is likely to choose Danish career diplomat and former EU special representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Peter Sorensen, to mediate the dialogue. He is expected to take on the role that former Slovak Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajcak has played in the past five years, when European diplomacy was led by Josep Borrell.
Meanwhile, among the Western Balkan countries aspiring to join the EU, Albania will continue towards membership, opening other negotiation chapters, after opening seven in the second half of 2024.
North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina will likely continue to be blocked on the path to the EU due to a lack of reforms, while Montenegro, which has already opened all chapters, aims to move even closer to the bloc.
So far, the country has managed to complete about a fifth of the talks and there is a will in Brussels for Montenegro to become the bloc's 28th member by the end of the decade – proof that EU enlargement is still possible. That is why the new Enlargement Commissioner, Marta Kos, is likely to make Podgorica the first destination during her visit to the region earlier this year.
Other countries are also part of the enlargement. For Ukraine and Moldova, a historic decision to open some of the 33 enlargement chapters is expected during the Polish Presidency. But this does not mean that the work will be done. In order for all countries to continue integration, everyone needs to agree, including skeptical countries such as Hungary and Slovakia, which are increasingly critical of Kiev's integration into the EU.
Serbia is also likely to open new chapters, for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Opposing states, such as the Baltics, Poland, and even the Netherlands, should agree to this, even though they have expressed their anger at Belgrade's closeness to Russia and the rollback of the rule of law.
However, Georgia will remain in the red. The EU still has no position on how to deal with Tbilisi, as the executive there has taken a series of controversial decisions that have been criticized by the West. There is no consensus on sanctions against people associated with the ruling Georgian Dream party, as decided by the US , but it is likely that the EU will suspend visa liberalization.
In Brussels, they believe that Georgia will now be in the same position as Turkey, officially a candidate for EU membership, but de facto its path to membership will be blocked.
Europe, politically, is increasingly surrounded by populist forces that are gaining ground across the continent.
In 2025, several large EU states will be significantly weaker. Germany will start the year with an election period, as it holds parliamentary elections on February 23. While a coalition between the center-right CDU and the center-left SPD is likely to form after the elections, the far-right AfD is likely to win 20 percent of the vote – its best ever result at the national level.
In France, the situation is more volatile due to the unstable government that has the tacit support of the far right, until new elections are held in July.
Governments in Spain and the Netherlands are shaky and could fall this year. Further east, Czech billionaire populist Andrej Babis is likely to win elections in October, bringing Prague closer politically to Hungary and Slovakia.
Meanwhile, in Austria, the far-right FPO recently received the mandate to form a government for the first time, which could potentially align Vienna with the populist bloc of Central Europe.
As for Poland, there is a perception that its leader, the pro-Western Donald Tusk, is now the strongest politician in the EU. He is also helped by the leadership of the EU Presidency, has good relations with Washington and has been the largest military spender in terms of percentage of Gross Domestic Product in NATO.
But Warsaw will also be distracted by the elections, as it will hold the presidential election on May 18 and the second round on June 1.
Tusk's ally, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, is considered the favorite in this election and if he wins, Tusk would consolidate power in the country. But conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki is expected to be his opponent and the election campaign will take the country's attention in the spring./REL (A2 Televizion)
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