US President Donald Trump has failed to convince Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin to hold talks to end the war in Ukraine, so he is seeking help on the issue from Saudi Arabia.
During a January 23 speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump called on Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, to increase oil production, a move that would lower crude prices, choking off the revenue sources that Moscow uses for its war against Ukraine.
"I will also ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower the cost of oil. We will lower the prices, which I'm actually surprised they didn't lower before the election. I was surprised by that fact. If prices were lowered, the war between Russia and Ukraine would end immediately," Trump said.
During the 2024 presidential election campaign, Trump made ending Russia's three-year occupation of Ukraine a priority and has stated that he wants to meet with President Putin.
However, the Kremlin appears to be reluctant to engage in talks, with analysts saying Putin believes he is winning the war and therefore sees no reason to stop the fighting.
Finally, Russia is taking territory in eastern Ukraine at the fastest pace since the start of the war, as Ukraine faces challenges recruiting new soldiers.
The day after his inauguration on January 20, Trump said he would impose more sanctions on Russia to force it to the negotiating table. But he did not say what the new sanctions would target.
A day later he repeated that warning. But Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on January 23 — before Trump spoke in Davos — that Moscow “does not see any new elements” in what Trump said.
During the term of Trump's predecessor, Joe Biden, the US imposed a series of sanctions on the Russian economy, including on the oil industry.
The Russian economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, which account for over 30 percent of federal budget revenues. A decline in either Russian oil exports or oil prices would further strain the already struggling Russian economy.
However, new sanctions on the Russian oil industry could lead to a rise in global oil prices if other countries do not increase production.
Saudi Arabia and some of its OPEC allies are capable of increasing production in the short term. Saudi Arabia currently produces 3 million barrels of oil per day, while the United Arab Emirates produces about 1 million barrels.
Production in such quantities is the result of an agreement among OPEC countries to produce enough to keep oil prices high.
Russia, a member of OPEC+, exports about 6.6 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day.
Before the virtual speech in Davos, Trump spoke with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, in his first phone conversation with a foreign leader since taking office earlier this week.
The two discussed stability in the Middle East, the fight against terrorism, and increasing trade, the White House said.
Chris Weafer, an oil industry expert and founder of the consulting firm Macro-Advisory, said he doesn't think Trump can convince the Saudis and other OPEC members to increase production in order to pressure the Kremlin over Ukraine.
"It is unlikely that Saudi Arabia, the Emirates or any other OPEC producer would engage in such a political move against OPEC+ member Russia, or take any action that would cause them to lose export revenue and give greater market share to U.S. producers," Weafer told Radio Free Europe.
David Oxley, climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said that while Saudi Arabia has "drifted away" from the US in recent years, Trump has strong ties to the country's leadership.
"There have been signs of warming relations recently, and Trump is known to have good relations with the Crown Prince and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia," Oyley said on January 23.
He added that Saudi Arabia has also expressed frustration with other OPEC members for producing more oil than their quota and could "open the floodgates" to regain global market share.
"This explicit invitation from Trump could be the cover Saudi Arabia needs to open the gates," he said. REL (A2 Televizion)
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