After the end of the war in Syria, Turkey positioned itself as the political winner. The Turkish economy hopes that there will be a lot of work in Syria in the reconstruction of the country.
Since the start of the Syrian civil war, Turkey has hosted more than three million Syrian refugees. The highest number was recorded in 2021, when about 3.8 million Syrians were registered in the country. There are currently about 2.9 million registered refugees in Turkey. According to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, between 2016 and 2024, about 730,000 Syrians returned to their homeland.
Since the protests against the Assad regime began in 2011, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has clearly sided with the Syrian opposition. She has continued her work from exile in Turkey, while the Turkish economy has benefited from the refugees as a cheap labor force. Syrian students are allowed to study at Turkish universities.
Despite Turkey's multiple political and economic crises, Ankara has continued to support the Syrian opposition, even as public opinion in the country has shifted and resistance to Syrian refugees has grown. After 14 years, the AKP government now wants to reap the fruits of its efforts.
Turkish companies await lucrative contracts
According to Abdallah Al Dardari, regional director of the UN Development Program (UNDP) for the Arab States, Syria's gross domestic product has fallen from $62 billion to just $8 billion. Poverty has risen from 12 to 65 percent. According to him, reconstruction will cost about $400 billion.
Given this huge challenge, Ankara is seen as a key country to participate in Syria's reconstruction. The Turkish government already has good relations with the new authorities in Damascus and hopes to engage in sectors such as energy, steel, construction, textiles, furniture, the chemical industry and food products.
Mustafa Gültepe, chairman of the Turkish Exporters' Assembly (TİM), emphasizes the need for humanitarian aid above all. "Syria is at the bottom, socially and economically, because almost a third of the population has fled the country." Restoring political stability will take a long time. "Therefore, the Turkish economy should first focus on helping to rebuild the necessary infrastructure in Syria," Gültepe said. "Whatever our neighbor needs, we will be happy to provide," he says.
Turkish exports
Before the start of the civil war, the trade volume between Turkey and Syria was 1.5 billion US dollars. The goal was to increase it to five billion. But after Erdogan sided with the opposition, relations with the Assad regime deteriorated and this goal became unattainable.
However, economic relations have not been completely severed. Between 2021 and 2023, Turkish exports to Syria exceeded two billion US dollars per year. Last year, the most exported products were cereals, chemicals, electronics, steel and seafood. Gültepe believes that after the formation of a stable government in Syria, economic relations will increase significantly.
The potential of the Turkish steel industry
The Turkish steel industry also sees great potential in the reconstruction of Syria. Veysel Yayan, secretary general of the Turkish Steel Producers Association, estimates that two to three million tons of steel will be needed for the reconstruction. Steel is crucial for infrastructure, and the geographical proximity of Turkey and its steel industry provides logistical advantages and savings. The large steel plant in Iskenderun is only 400 kilometers from Syria.
Plans for economic growth
Although Turkish companies see great potential in the Syrian market, they are currently still cautious. New projects are scheduled to start in the spring, provided that the interim government provides some stability by then. In the first phase, Turkish companies plan to cooperate with local partners, especially those who have good relations with the new regime. These partners will serve as a bridge and reduce risks for Turkish investors.
Murat Akyüz, president of the Istanbul Chemical Exporters Group, considers Syrian returnees important partners for Turkish firms. "They know the Turkish and Syrian markets and can serve as a link between the two countries," Akyüz said.
The government supports the restoration of relations
The Turkish government is showing great interest in quickly restoring economic relations with this country. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar will soon visit Damascus to explore opportunities for energy cooperation. Trade Minister Ömer Bolat has already sent his deputy Mustafa Tuzcu to Damascus for negotiations on strengthening cooperation. According to government statements, the negotiations resulted in numerous agreements, which should facilitate trade and investment between the two countries.
Difficulty due to new customs measures
However, the latest customs measures by the Syrian interim government are overshadowing the expectations of Turkish exporters. With the standardization of customs procedures at all borders, customs duties on Turkish products have increased by up to 500 percent, significantly reducing the competitiveness of Turkish products in the Syrian market. /DW/ (A2 Televizion)
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