All votes from the February 9 parliamentary elections in Kosovo have finally been counted. Although the results have yet to be certified, the picture is now clearer as to who has the real chance of forming the new government.
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In a survey published a few days ago on our website, we asked Radio Free Europe readers who, according to their predictions, will form the new Government of Kosovo.
Between three options – the Vetëvendosje Movement (LVV) with minorities, the Vetëvendosje Movement with an opposition party, or opposition parties – 60 percent of participants voted for the first.
Surveys like this, discussions, and calculations have been on our radar for three weeks, everywhere.
The LVV, which is currently in power and won the most votes in the February 9 parliamentary elections, has pledged to form the Government again.
Its leader, also the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, has said that he is waiting for the certification of the results before his party members sit down and look at the way forward:
"The situation has not changed for us to have different positions regarding our opponents. A hybrid war has been waged against our Government and the LVV, and we have emerged victorious, and the victor must and will form the new Government."
How can LVV form the new Government?
Immediately after the publication of the preliminary results, Kurti rejected the possibility of any coalition with the major Albanian parties in opposition – the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) and the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK).
These three opposition parties have also said they will not cooperate with Kurti.
Under Kosovo law, within 30 days of the certification of the results, the country's president must convene the constitutive session of the Kosovo Assembly. If the speaker and deputy speakers are elected, then Vjosa Osmani must ask the winning party, LVV in this case, to propose a candidate to form the Government.
But, this party seems to have 48 seats in the 120-seat Assembly.
To form the Government, a candidate needs at least 61 votes.
Political analysts believe that Kurti is counting on the scenario of forming a Government with non-Serb minorities, who have 10 seats, as well as on the moves that some current opposition MPs may make, "for ministerial positions."
The leader of the Social Democratic Initiative, Fatmir Limaj, who is in coalition with AAK, has openly said that there are no "red lines" in the face of possible coalitions, whether with LVV or with the parties that are currently in opposition.
But, for political scientist Dritëro Arifi, Kosovo does not need a "fragile" government in the current geopolitical situation in the world.
"A single party, like Vetëvendosje, with such a small and fragile coalition, will find it impossible to fulfill the demands that may come from international partners," Arifi tells Radio Free Europe.
Can a PDK-LDK-AAK Government be formed?
Asked about possible requests, Arifi estimates that it may no longer be just about forming the Association of Serb-majority municipalities:
"What if something more is required, how willing are we to move in these major global changes? Many things can be required, we are not hinting at much, but we are taking only one: what if a border change is required? What are we willing to do and how will we do it? This is the greatest sin, that an entire society does not have an answer."
If the winning party fails to form a government within two weeks, then the president is forced to mandate the party or group that she believes can form it.
For Arifi, even if this means a coalition between the three major Albanian parties, PDK-LDK-AAK, the outlook is still bleak, due to the fact that stability is not guaranteed.
What combination could work?
Arifi believes that a coalition between LVV and PDK would be the best for Kosovo, because that way, according to him, the crisis over the position of president could be overcome, after Osman's mandate expires next year.
Asked how likely it is that such a coalition will function, how close these parties are in ideology, Arifi believes that no political entity in Kosovo has differences in this regard, and that they all have almost the same concept:
"If you just look at the debates and speeches, everything in Kosovo revolves around the public sector, raising salaries. The worldview of policymaking is very narrow. They don't have much difference."
However, according to Arifi, an LVV-PDK coalition could work if the parties focus on 6-7 priorities, so that the result is "positive for society and the state."
The importance of stability in Kosovo has also been mentioned by the international factor.
Most recently, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Kosovo must have a stable government, while asserting that the military alliance will work with whoever will lead Kosovo./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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