The Croatian Security and Intelligence Agency (SOA) assesses that relations between Kosovo and Serbia remain unstable and that, under these circumstances, the escalation of tensions in Kosovo poses a constant risk.
In its annual report, SOA sheds light not only on the security situation in Croatia, but also on developments in the Western Balkans - a region that, according to it, continues to face profound political and security challenges, closely linked to unresolved interstate issues.
Although the EU and the US remain involved in stabilization efforts, the report highlights that resolving these issues remains difficult.
This climate of uncertainty, according to SOA, also directly affects the region's European integration process, which is progressing at a slow pace.
Croatia sees continuing threats in the north
In its assessment of Kosovo, SOA emphasizes the existence of groups aiming to destabilize the situation in the north of the country, where the majority of the population is Serb.
As an example of this, the report cites the armed attack by Serbian formations on the Kosovo Police in the village of Banjska, on September 24, 2023, in which a policeman was killed.
Pristina has accused Belgrade of this attack, while Serbian officials have denied any responsibility.
The report notes that it is still unclear how this paramilitary formation was organized and how it was armed with heavy weapons of military origin.
Milan Radoicic, who claimed responsibility for organizing the attack and was a participant in it, is reported to have fled to Serbia, where he was questioned, but criminal proceedings against him are still pending.
The SOA report also mentions the efforts of Kosovo authorities to eliminate parallel Serbian institutions in the north, with the aim of strengthening the state's sovereignty and limiting Belgrade's influence in this area.
"In such circumstances, the escalation of tensions in Kosovo remains a constant risk. Therefore, the role of security guarantor continues to be played by the military presence of international forces," concludes the SOA.
Serbia's strategic balancing
For Kosovo's northern neighbor, Serbia, the SOA emphasizes the continuation of the policy of balancing between the West, Russia, and China.
This strategy also includes promoting the concept of the "Serbian world", which aims to unite Serbs in neighboring countries - especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo - under the unified political umbrella of official Belgrade.
At the domestic level, SOA notes that Serbia has experienced several waves of anti-government protests, organized mainly by students, who demand democratization of society, depoliticization of state institutions, strengthening of media freedom, and the fight against corruption.
The report emphasizes that - in such a complicated situation, with growing social polarization - media close to governing structures reinforce a narrative that identifies external and internal enemies.
According to the report, this creates an atmosphere of national threat and is used to discredit student protests.
In this context, the Republic of Croatia is mentioned as a "permanent anti-Serbian factor", SOA emphasizes.
Other challenges
The Croatian agency notes that political instability continues in Bosnia and Herzegovina, caused by disagreements between entities and communities over constitutional regulation and foreign policy.
The main conflict lies between the leadership of Republika Srpska and the High Representative over jurisdiction.
SOA assesses that the leadership of Republika Srpska openly supports the dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina and seeks political support from Russia - which will continue to create serious political and security challenges.
In Montenegro, according to the report, the socio-political division between the pro-European option and the Serbian option, which is simultaneously pro-Russian and anti-Western, also continues.
Serbian radical parties are part of the current governing coalition, and although the Montenegrin government aims to demonstrate European commitment, the influence of the nationalist and anti-Western policies of the Serbian option could hinder European integration and negatively affect relations with the EU, the SOA report estimates.
He also mentions the Serbian Orthodox Church, which, in addition to its religious role, he says also has a strong political influence - national and regional.
Church leaders promote the concept of the “Serbian world,” specifically including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo as part of this space, the report notes.
The same also warns that criminal organizations in the Western Balkans, especially Serbian-Montenegrin ones, are very active in trafficking cocaine from South America to Europe.
Russia's destabilizing role
In part of the report, SOA also highlights Russia's continued and destabilizing influence in the Western Balkans.
Moscow, according to the report, uses a range of tools - especially traditional ties with Serbia - to maintain and expand its influence in the region.
The agency also notes the active presence of Russian intelligence services in Serbia, which, according to the SOA, includes sheltering agents defecting from Western countries.
The report emphasizes that Russian hybrid vehicles also operate from Serbian territory and specifically mentions RT and Sputnik.
These media outlets "serve to spread pro-Russian and anti-Western narratives in the Western Balkans," the report states.
"Secure democracy"
For Croatia itself, the SOA assesses that it is a "secure and stable democracy in a challenging security environment."
She emphasizes that rapid global changes, technological developments and the consequences of the war in Ukraine have contributed to the deterioration of security in Europe.
But Croatia currently does not face serious direct threats to national security or the democratic constitutional order, SOA notes./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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