Secretary of State Marco Rubio's strategy for Southeast and East Asia will aim to contain China, toughening United States policies toward Beijing, to ensure regional peace and to advance American interests to the maximum, analysts say.
Secretary Rubio gave a brief presentation of what U.S. foreign policy will look like on his first day in office. Speaking to State Department staff after being sworn in on Jan. 21, Mr. Rubio said, "Our job around the world is to make sure we have a foreign policy that advances the national interest of the United States."
Referring to President Donald Trump's objective, Mr. Rubio further said that "the primary goal of global politics is to promote peace and avoid conflict."
Putting "America first" and achieving "peace through strength" are the pillars on which President Trump said he would base his agenda when he took office on January 20.
Secretary Rubio is likely to consult with officials responsible for countries in the region and coordinate with the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to formulate the US strategy for the Asia-Pacific, Richard Armitage, who served as Deputy Secretary of State in the administration of President George W. Bush, told VOA.
"Secretary Rubio's Southeast Asia policy will focus on containing China through stronger U.S. trade, security partnerships, and supply chain diversification," Mark Kennedy, director of the Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition at the Wilson Center, told VOA.
Regarding Pyongyang and Moscow, "Rubio will ask China, as Mr. Trump did, to persuade North Korea to resume negotiations with the United States," said Joseph DeTrani, who served as special envoy for the six-party nuclear talks with North Korea during the administration of President George W. Bush.
"If successful, with or without China's help, this could help drive North Korea away from Russia," said expert DeTrani.
Secretary of State Rubio's background
Secretary Rubio's strong opposition to authoritarianism, communism and human rights abuses is likely to "influence his approach to the State Department," said Evans Revere, who served as the East Asian and Pacific affairs official in President George W. Bush's administration.
Former Senator Rubio was raised in Miami by Cuban immigrant parents and has always had a tough stance against communist governments throughout his political career.
This stance, combined with the two pillars of foreign policy, is likely to result in tough strategies on countries like North Korea and China and their activities in the region, analysts say.
Secretary of State Rubio signaled this during a call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Friday, stressing that "the Trump Administration will pursue a U.S.-People's Republic of China relationship that advances United States interests and United States commitment to our allies in the region."
He also expressed "serious concern about China's coercive actions against Taiwan and in the South China Sea."
Consistent with the policy goal of avoiding conflict, Secretary Rubio could support President Trump's personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, said Gary Samore, former White House coordinator for weapons of mass destruction control during President Obama's administration.
North Korea said on Sunday it conducted a strategic land-to-sea missile test the day before.
Secretary Rubio had initially expressed doubts about President Trump's meeting with North Korean leader Kim during Mr. Trump's first term. However, during his confirmation hearing for Secretary earlier this month, Mr. Rubio said that President Trump's diplomacy was able to stop the communist country from conducting further missile tests.
He spoke by phone with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul last week, stressing that the alliance is the linchpin of peace on the Korean Peninsula and throughout the Indo-Pacific.
During a meeting also held last week in Washington, Secretary Rubio and Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi discussed North Korea's ties with Russia.
Together Against China
Secretary Rubio last week had phone calls with the foreign ministers of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, all mentioning sustainable maritime security in the South China Sea during the conversations.
Notably, during the phone call with Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo, Mr. Rubio mentioned "China's dangerous and destabilizing actions in the South China Sea."
With Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son, Secretary Rubio expressed concern about China's "aggressive behavior in the South China Sea."
Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told Voice of America on January 23 that President Trump's administration "will primarily look to the Philippines and external partners like Japan and Australia to defend freedom of action in the South China Sea."
One of Secretary Rubio’s first meetings was with Australian, Japanese, and Indian leaders last week in Washington. They expressed opposition to unilateral actions to change the status quo in the region by force or coercion and pledged to keep the Indo-Pacific region free and open.
Analyst Poling added that President Trump's administration will look "secondarily to Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia to deepen maritime cooperation."
Secretary Rubio “may ask Indonesia to take a tougher stance on Chinese activities in disputed waters, especially in light of the Indonesia-China maritime development agreement signed in November 2024,” Anreyka Natalegawa, a fellow for the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS, said during a VOA interview on January 23.
Indonesia and China signed a $10 billion deal in November, agreeing, among other things, to develop fishing, oil and gas exploration in their private sectors.
Analysts say Washington's push to bring countries in the region closer to Washington could fuel some tensions. Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar tend to lean more toward Beijing, and Indonesia tries to balance its engagement with China and the United States.
Robert McMahon, a foreign affairs expert at Ohio State University, said Secretary Rubio's tough stance on China could put Indonesia in a "difficult position, as it has not been willing to join the group of anti-China countries."
He told VOA in December, after Mr. Rubio was nominated by President-elect Trump to be secretary of state, that "the United States is trying to pressure Indonesia to move in that direction to the extent that it could lead to a conflict."
Secretary Rubio told his State Department staff last week that he understands that other countries will make efforts “to advance their national interests,” but he hopes that “there will be many countries whose interests align with our national interests.”
Seng Vanly, a lecturer at a faculty at the University of Cambodia, said Washington is likely to increase pressure on Cambodia over human rights concerns, obstacles to democracy and limited civil society activities, along with its growing ties with China.
However, analysts say Washington's foreign policy under Mr. Rubio is likely to balance issues such as human rights with regional security and economic goals.
Rahman Yaacob, a fellow in the Southeast Asia program at the Lowy Institute, said, “Washington will be more hands-on.”
"While Washington is expected to raise the issue of human rights with countries in the region, the Americans understand that if they leave the region for this reason, China will fill the void," Mr. Yaacob said./ VOA (A2 Televizion)
A2 CNN Livestream
MUND TE LEXONI GJITHASHTU
