Analysis: Why is China showing off its dominance with rare earth minerals in the trade war with the US?

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2025-04-18 09:01:00 | Bota

Analysis: Why is China showing off its dominance with rare earth minerals in the

They have hard-to-pronounce names; they are essential to modern manufacturing and are increasingly moving to the center of the trade war between the United States and China.

The global supply of these rare earth minerals – a group of 17 essential elements found in everything from electric vehicle batteries to crucial defense technology – is largely controlled by China.

Beijing is now seeking to use this strategic advantage in its ongoing clashes and trade tensions with Washington.

Responding to tariffs recently imposed by the United States, China has restricted sales to the US of seven rare earth elements. While not a complete ban, the measure requires manufacturers to apply for export licenses from the Chinese government.

Concerns are growing that this could lead to price increases and supply disruptions, which could particularly affect US defense companies.

"What oil was for the 20th century, rare earths are for the 21st century," said Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University's Maxwell School for Citizenship and Public Affairs.

"Microchips, green technology and quantum computing all require rare earth minerals, and China has most of them. This is a national security issue that goes beyond the stock market," he added.

China controls more than two-thirds of global rare earth element production and over 90 percent of processing capacity.

It also essentially has a monopoly on the processing of rare earth heavy minerals, a subset used in the US defense sector to produce powerful magnets, which are needed for fighter jets, warships, missiles, tanks and lasers.

It remains to be seen how China will implement these new restrictions, but a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington warns that they will likely cause disruptions to exports until Beijing brings in a licensing system, and will cause supply disruptions for some US companies, particularly those in the national security sector.

"The United States is particularly vulnerable to these supply chains," the April 14 report said. "Currently, there is no segregation of rare earth heavy minerals in the United States."

How is China restricting rare earth minerals?

The new export restrictions apply to seven rare, medium and heavy elements: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium - all important in the defense sector.

Yttrium, for example, is used as a coating for aircraft engines to withstand high temperatures, preventing them from melting during flight.

While the Pentagon and American firms have stockpiles, they are believed to be insufficient to withstand any prolonged supply disruption. In addition to banning the elements themselves, Beijing has also placed 16 American entities – all but one in the defense and space industries – on its export control list, restricting them from receiving dual-use goods, including rare earth elements.

Dimitar Gueorguiev, a professor at Syracuse University, says he sees this latest move more as a signal from Beijing about "its ability to restrict these exports, if the trade war escalates."

"It is important to keep in mind that most importers have had this concern for a long time and are likely to have been supplied for at least several months," he said.

However, these measures and the possibility of escalating them are a powerful tool for China.

In addition to the ability to stop supplies, Beijing's dominance of the market also allows it to dictate prices, meaning it can raise costs for certain customers, or limit supplies of rare earth minerals outside its control, keeping prices low.

This was also seen in previous measures implemented by China. In 2023, Beijing restricted exports of gallium and germanium, which are used in chips, radars and satellites. This was followed by a complete ban on their exports to the US in December 2024.

Since then, prices have risen sharply and the global market has become fragmented. Gallium purchased from Western countries is two to three times more expensive than that purchased in China, according to Project Blue.

The CSIS report also warns that Chinese exports pose a direct threat to US military readiness, adding to concerns raised by lawmakers and analysts that the country is falling behind in defense manufacturing.

"Even before the recent restrictions, the US defense industrial base struggled with limited capacity and lacked the ability to scale up production to meet defense technology requirements," the report said.

The report's authors cite an estimate – by a US Air Force official in 2022 – that China is acquiring advanced weapons systems and equipment five to six times faster than the United States.

How can the US respond?

Faced with pressure from China, experts say the US should undertake policies to increase domestic production and seek new sources in other countries.

Since the 1980s, the US has been a leader in rare earth element production, but rising prices led to the closure of the main mine, Mountain Pass, in California in the early 2000s.

This mine has since reopened and successive US administrations, including that of President Donald Trump during his first term, have allocated money for the extraction and processing of rare elements.

But catching up with China in the race for rare earth elements and other rare minerals takes time and is very expensive.

Some who work in the sector also say that other parts of the tariffs imposed by Trump could have harmful side effects, making it difficult to rapidly increase production.

On the podcast "Rare Earth Exchanges," industry entrepreneur Daniel O'Connor said that tariffed materials, such as steel and aluminum, are vital in mining and processing.

"Don't put tariffs on the things we need to build infrastructure," he said.

The US is also looking to secure supplies abroad, as the Trump administration aims to gain more access to rare earth elements and vital minerals in Greenland and Ukraine, where Kiev and Washington are said to be close to a deal.

Washington has also sponsored new mines in Brazil and South Africa, and is funding the first major facility for processing heavy rare earth elements outside China, in Texas, although it will take years to produce results.

Meanwhile, Beijing is expected to continue using rare earth elements as a tool to pressure Washington.

"This has become part of Beijing's strategy when confronting the US," Neil Shearing, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote on April 14./ REL (A2 Televizion)

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