Signs of a thaw in trade tensions between the US and China have given markets a temporary boost and fueled hopes of avoiding an escalation in the tariff war. International media report that after several days of high tension, Beijing announced that it was “appreciating” the American opening for a series of talks, acknowledging that Washington “has taken the initiative”, but demanding in return “sincerity” and the cancellation of unilateral measures. At the same time, an important opening is also coming from Europe: the EU is ready to increase purchases of American goods by up to 50 billion euros, as a conciliatory gesture to rebalance the trade relationship with the United States. However, this is only one phase of global negotiations between the two main powers of the planet and the richest and most contested market, Europe, inserted into the American camp, but also contested on a commercial level by China. Despite the thaw in relations, announced in recent days by Donald Trump himself, the strategic paths of China and the US remain opposite and destined to collide.
Stock markets start to breathe again as US-China relations thaw
Signs of easing tensions between Washington and Beijing have had an immediate effect on international markets, which have returned to pre-tariff levels for the first time. European stock markets rallied on Friday: Frankfurt gained 2.5%, Paris 2.3%, Milan 1.92%, London 1.2%. Wall Street also opened sharply higher, with major indexes also boosted by positive US jobs data. By morning, Asian stock markets had reached their highest levels in more than a month, precisely because of China's willingness to engage in dialogue.
The US-China-EU trade triangle
The improvement of customs relations between China and the US also brings positive news on the Brussels-Washington axis. The EU represents the "true price of globalization", the final destination of a large part of world trade and remains the most important continent on the planet. Unable to freely project itself on the high seas, due to American containment in the Taiwan Strait, China has focused on land routes such as the New Silk Roads to reach European markets. Even bypassing sanctions and bans through "dark" agreements, triangulating trade between EU states and Central Asian countries (such as Russia). In an interview with the Financial Times, the European Commissioner for Trade, Maroš Šefčovič, spoke of "some progress" in the negotiations and reiterated the goal of a "fair and balanced" agreement. The idea behind the European proposal would be to fill the US trade deficit, estimated at around $50 billion, through an increase in imports of liquefied natural gas, soybeans and other agricultural products produced in the US.
EU line on tariffs
A firm stance remains: a 10% tariff deal would not be enough. For Brussels, this remains a “very high” threshold, Šefčovič explained, also calling the customs tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in early April and then suspended “unfair” and “astronomical”. The EU, he explained, is ready to cooperate with the United States on the issue of Chinese exports, proposing cooperation on steel, semiconductors and critical raw materials to strengthen economic security. “I think there is now a better mutual understanding, also on the numbers,” the commissioner added, stressing the importance of taking into account US services exports to the EU when calculating the deficit. At the same time, he reiterated that any agreement would have to be politically sustainable for the Council and the European Parliament, warning: "It will be very difficult to find a solution that is clearly good and acceptable to all our member states."
No official offer from the US
To temper any mild enthusiasm, the EU Commission has clarified, however, that there is no formal offer to the US at the moment. “So far we have discussed areas where we believe we can find an agreement,” said spokesman Olof Gill. The idea of increasing imports in sectors such as energy and agriculture “is not new,” he explained. “We are simply reiterating that there are areas where there is room for cooperation, which would also help reduce the EU’s trade surplus, which seems to be a real obsession for the US administration.” Meanwhile, €21 billion in countermeasures against US products, including Harley-Davidson motorcycles, poultry and clothing, remain suspended until July 14. However, the EU is ready to act in a “strong and united” way in case a deal is not reached.
The US and China remain strategic rivals
Despite each phase of de-escalation and subsequent escalation, the dispute between China and the United States remains alive and strategic. The only tariffs that Washington needs to implement are precisely those against the People's Republic, to prevent it from gaining strength. The huge revenues from the trade surplus are in fact used by Beijing to strengthen itself in light of the recent challenge with the US, and therefore in rearmament, technological development and the narrowing of the economic gap between the coast (very rich) and the interior (poorer). The Dragon versus Eagle strategy remains a strategy of complete opposition. However, at this point, both sides have agreed on the need to de-escalate, for reasons that are again opposite: America is too tired, China is too divided and unprepared. (A2 Televizion)
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