After a busy week of diplomatic and diplomatic discussions about how to end the war in Ukraine, which have increased differences between the United States and Western powers, as well as raised questions about American aid to Ukraine, China is analyzing ways it can benefit from all these developments.
For Beijing, the diplomatic rifts between the United States and its European allies – the latest fueled by the heated Oval Office discussion between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky – present new opportunities for improving relations with Europe.
Something like this could also have an impact in Asia, as countries that are tied to Washington, like Taiwan, are grappling with the implications of a more transactional US.
Such a situation could strengthen China in that region, which is constantly trying to extend its roots further into the Pacific.
"There's no question that this has been a good thing for China," said Andrew Small, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Berlin, who has previously advised the European Commission on China strategy, in several responses to Radio Free Europe.
"Beijing believes it can benefit greatly from this situation, from contingents in Taiwan to greater cooperation with Russia, which would mean a weakened US."
How can China benefit from the change in US policy?
China has already been interested in reaching out to Brussels and other European capitals, before recent developments in Washington, which resulted in Zelensky leaving the White House without signing the important minerals agreement.
Through these efforts, Chinese diplomats have sought to exploit concerns about U.S. intentions to restore relations with Russia and quickly end the war in Ukraine - thereby abandoning European allies - three European Union officials said in several responses to Radio Free Europe.
Beijing, which has declared itself neutral but has backed Russia in its war in Ukraine, is seeking to capitalize on transatlantic disagreements, including Trump's plans to hit the EU with 25 percent tariffs, which Brussels has vowed to retaliate against.
US President Donald Trump listens during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, February 26, 2025, alongside US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.
Small believes that the Chinese are still in the "fact-finding" phase to understand what they can gain in this context.
"Everything China brings forward will be viewed with skepticism," he said.
"But Beijing believes there will be benefits after the first phase, especially if tariffs start to be implemented."
Does China want to be a peacemaker in Ukraine?
At the Munich Security Conference in February, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China believes all parties should participate in peace talks, highlighting the role of Europe. The statements came ahead of a meeting between US and Russian officials in Riyadh, to which no European officials, including those from Kiev, were invited.
"If I were in Beijing's place, I would tell the Europeans what they want to hear, and what they currently want to hear is that Europe and Kiev should be involved in negotiations on the future of Ukraine," Zsuzsa Anna Ferenczy, a professor at National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan and a former advisor to the European Parliament, told Radio Free Europe in several interviews.
On the sidelines of the conference, retired Chinese colonel Zhou Bo made headlines after not ruling out the possibility of having Chinese and Indian peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of an agreement to end the war.
These statements were followed by Wang's comments at the Group of 20 (G20) meeting in South Africa, where he said that the talks between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia are a "window of opportunity for peace" in Ukraine, and that "China will continue to play a constructive role in a political solution to the crisis."
Ferenczy believes that these statements are 'test balloons' for Beijing to see how much impact its word can have, although, according to her, the trade problems over the years between Brussels and Beijing, and China's closeness to Russia during the war, are elements that are difficult to forget.
Among other things, Beijing will need to work on dispelling the impression that its diplomatic efforts are more about image than achieving peace.
Shortly after the war began, Chinese leader Xi Jinping described China as neutral, and Chinese diplomats have called for peace in international forums. In 2023, Beijing presented a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that sought to achieve a ceasefire and start peace talks, but offered no guidance on how to end the war, so European officials have ruled out its role as a blueprint for peace.
Will diplomatic tensions over Ukraine affect Asia?
The Trump administration has said its efforts are designed to push allies to allocate more defense funds, recalibrate trade relations and end the war in Ukraine.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that if the United States withdraws military aid to Ukraine, it would allow Washington to focus its resources on the Asia-Pacific region, where the administration has said combating China is a priority.
However, there are early signs that Washington's approach to ending the war in Ukraine will have a double effect in the east, especially on Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing has vowed to annex by force if it refuses peaceful unification.
Taiwan has long faced the possibility of a Chinese invasion, and the pressure is now only increasing.
On February 28, China's Interior Ministry said it did not rule out the possibility of using force against Taiwan, while its spokesman, Wu Qian, warned the United States that "only Taiwan will suffer from deceptive games."
The comments came after Taiwanese authorities said they had detained a cargo ship crewed by Chinese nationals, believed to have severed undersea communications cables.
Taiwan's ability to withstand any attack depends on the US's willingness to help it, and the Taiwanese government has closely watched the US approach to Ukraine as an example of what it might experience in the event of a future crisis with China.
Ryan Hass, former director for China at the US National Security Council, said that Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine and his clashes with Zelensky in the Oval Office will certainly cause anxiety in Taipei, but that Taiwan's unique reputation as a producer of 90 percent of the world's most advanced semiconductors adds points to its relationship with the US.
Trump has called on Taipei to increase defense spending, and has said he wants to move semiconductor manufacturing plants to the US.
However, any relocation option takes time and is a costly process.
Hass said this fact makes Taiwan "inseparable from Trump's goals for an industrial renaissance in America," as he attempts to change the face of the American manufacturing industry.
"Taiwan needs the US, but the US also needs Taiwan," Hass wrote in X.
The head of Taiwanese semiconductor chip manufacturing company TSMC visited the White House on March 3 and announced that it would invest $100 billion in the US.
TSMC, the world's largest manufacturer of advanced chips and a key supplier to American hardware manufacturers, has said it plans to build five factories in the US in the coming years./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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