When will the new Pope be elected and who will he be? These are the two fundamental questions on which the attention of the main international betting agencies has been focused, which have highlighted the bets and odds on the hypothetical outcomes of the Conclave. Italian media report that on Thursday, May 8, the date of the election of Francesco's successor, the odds are 2.10, while on May 9 they are given at 2.75. White smoke on today's date, May 7, is considered less likely: the probability is 9. The option of May 10 is considered impossible. As for the candidates for the papal seat, there are not only the superfavorites, Secretary of State Pietro Parolin and the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, but surprisingly the name of the Maltese Mario Grech also comes up.
The goal is a two-three day Conclave.
However, all the players agree that the Conclave will not be as long as initially stated. Two or three days of work should lead to the election of the cardinal who will become Pope. Those who saw the cardinals enter Santa Marta, the house where they will stay while they work to elect the pope, say that some of them were seen carrying very light luggage, a sign of confidence in a short stay. The chimney of the Sistine Chapel will tell us if they were right, with the smoke that will come out of it every day starting on Thursday evening. One smoke on the first day, four on the following days.
Among favorites and surprises
Almost certainly, the bookmakers are certain, by Thursday morning we will see only black smoke coming out of the chimney. The bookies agree: the first two or three ballots are all about study and knowledge. The reformers could initially choose the Marseillaise Jean-Marc Aveline, while the conservatives would be inclined to suggest the Hungarian Erdoğan or the Congolese Fridolin Ambono. The votes on Thursday afternoon could be the best. But if the operations were to drag on until Friday, at this point the candidates who started as favorites could suffer and "surprises" could appear, such as the American Robert Prevost.
Will the new Pope be a reformer or a conservative?
The bookmakers are convinced that the succession will be decided with Bergoglio: the odds given are 5 that Peter's successor will take the name of Francis II, while for John and John Paul the odds are 6, and for Benedict 7. Parolin is still in the lead (he would start with a theoretical consensus of around fifty votes), who gathers the favor of 32% of the bets, followed by Tagle with 16%. The Ghanaian Peter Turkson is given 8%, together with the Hungarian Peter Erdo, while the Patriarch of Jerusalem Pierbattista Pizzaballa is given 7%. As for the surprise Grech, the odds of betting on him have dropped significantly: from 42 days ago, today his name is 20.
Decisive time
Time will be of the essence for the election. Both Benedict XVI and Francis were elected on the second day of the Conclave: Ratzinger on the fourth ballot, on April 19, 2005, Bergoglio on the fifth, on March 13, 2013. In the last Conclave, Angelo Scola was the favorite. But the prolongation of the operations would have prompted the "surprise" of the Pope coming from Argentina. For his successor, the word goes to the chimney of the Sistine Chapel. (A2 Televizion)
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