"Syria" can increase tensions between Turkey, Iran and Russia

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2024-12-06 16:51:00 | Bota

"Syria" can increase tensions between Turkey, Iran and Russia

Recent victories by Turkish-backed Syrian rebels threaten to fuel tensions between Turkey, Iran and Russia, which are embroiled in Syria's 13-year civil war. However, some analysts say that the problems between them are expected to be resolved diplomatically.

As Syrian rebels scored some quick victories against Damascus forces, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi held talks on Monday with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan.

Turkey, a supporter of the Syrian rebels, has called for dialogue with Damascus, and Mr. Fidan has said that the Syrian opposition should be included in the talks.

But the recent escalation of fighting in Syria has highlighted the differences between Ankara and Tehran over the situation on the ground.

"Iran aims to increase influence over the Al-Assad regime. The Iranians are very cautious and are against a possible dialogue between Turkey and Al-Assad. Iran may not be Turkey's enemy, but it is not behaving in a friendly manner towards Turkey," says researcher Bilgehan Alagoz from Marmara University.

Moscow, like Tehran, has major interests in Syria. Russia is a vital military backer of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, who has allowed the Russian navy to use an important port in Syria.

"For Moscow and Iran, Al-Assad's stay in power is very important. If its interests are threatened, Russia would use military force, its air force, which would cause a large number of civilian casualties and a new wave of migrants," says researcher Zaur Gasimov from the University of Bonn.

More than a million Syrian refugees are in camps near the Turkish border in Idlib province, which is controlled by Syrian rebels. There are already more than four million refugees in Turkey, and analysts say any Russian attack that triggers a new refugee exodus would trigger reactions from Ankara.

"Turkey has a line, that if crossed, it would not sit idly by. If Turkey's interests or security were directly threatened, it would intervene," says Murat Aslan, international relations expert.

Despite supporting rival sides in the Syrian civil war, Turkey and Russia have managed these differences and their leaders have maintained a close relationship.

They discussed Syria in a phone call on Tuesday.

Analysts say that for Erdogan and Putin, maintaining relations between them is much more important than differences over Syria.

"Not to the extent that Moscow would jeopardize its cooperation with Turkey, which is of primary importance for Russian foreign policy. Moscow and Ankara will show political pragmatism and try to resolve their differences through negotiations with each other," says researcher Zaur Gasimov from the University of Bonn.

Based on the so-called Astana Process, Russia, Turkey and Iran have cooperated on the Syrian issue in the past. Analysts say that the Astana process can be revived if all parties are interested in a diplomatic solution to the protracted conflict in Syria./ VOA (A2 Televizion)

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