United States President Donald Trump's promise to quickly end Russia's war against Ukraine took an unexpected turn when his envoy said the administration would like Kiev to hold elections, potentially this year and especially if a ceasefire is reached.
Keith Kellogg's statements highlighted a sensitive and unresolved issue in Ukrainian politics, as US efforts to launch peace talks intensify and the Kremlin seeks to discredit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, claiming he is illegitimate .
In an interview with Reuters on February 1, Kellogg said that elections in Ukraine "must be held" and could take place after a ceasefire agreement, something he has said could be achieved within months.
"Most democratic countries hold elections even during wartime. I think it's important that they do," Kellogg told Reuters. "I think it's good for democracy. That's the beauty of a strong democracy: you have more than one person who can run."
But Zelensky has said that elections will only be held after the active phase of the war ends and martial law is lifted. In an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, he stressed that holding elections now would be impossible due to security concerns and logistical challenges, including how soldiers, displaced citizens and people in occupied territories would vote.
Mikhail Alexeev, a political scientist at San Diego State University who focuses on Russia and Ukraine, said the Trump administration likely raised the issue of the election in the hope that it could facilitate the negotiation process. But he said that could play into Russia's favor, calling it a "dangerous maneuver and a political game by the Kremlin."
Putin has repeatedly said that Moscow is open to talks, but many experts doubt that he would act in good faith. They say Putin would use the negotiations to project the image of a cooperative actor while buying time to further improve Russia's position on the ground in Ukraine, where it has been making progress - albeit at great cost in human lives - for months.
"If Putin manages to delay the US administration for a few more months, then he can exert more pressure on the battlefield," Alexeev said.
Putin has repeatedly said that Zelensky will not have the authority to sign a peace deal, claiming he is illegitimate because his five-year term was scheduled to end in May 2024, after the March presidential election.
But Ukraine's Constitution prohibits holding elections while the country is in a state of war, which was declared by Zelensky when Russia began its full-scale invasion in February 2022 and - like the invasion - continues today after several successive extensions.
However, Ukrainians have been debating the importance of holding a presidential election since 2023, when this debate was influenced by Western pressure and Russian propaganda.
Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, traveled to Kiev in May of that year and urged Zelensky to proceed with the election as planned.
Meanwhile, Republican opposition to further aid to Ukraine grew in Congress ahead of a months-long deadlock that damaged Kiev's position on the battlefield, as Ukrainian forces rely heavily on American weapons.
At the time, many Ukrainians, including opposition leaders and civil society groups, opposed holding elections during the war, warning that it would divide society at a critical moment in Ukraine's history. They also said it would put lives at risk, given Russia's continued bombing of civilian areas.
There are many other issues that Ukraine will face if it tries to hold elections during the war, or even immediately after a ceasefire. More than 6 million people have fled the country, nearly 4 million are internally displaced, and about 1 million are in military service, making voting difficult. Together, they represent about a quarter of the population.
“Elections and a large-scale war are inappropriate. This idea is extremely dangerous and will lead to the loss of legitimacy of the elected process and institutions and, most likely, to a significant destabilization of the state as a whole. If a free political competition is impossible in conditions of war, then the elections cannot be free,” said a statement signed by 100 civil society groups in September 2023.
"To say that Zelensky is not a legitimate authority is completely meaningless and absurd," Alexeev said.
In an interview on national television on January 2, Zelensky said that elections were possible in 2025, but only after a ceasefire.
And after Kellogg's comments, a Zelensky aide told Reuters that "if his plan is just a ceasefire and elections, it's a failed plan - Putin won't be afraid of just those two things."
Zelensky and his government say that strong security guarantees for Ukraine will be an essential condition for any ceasefire or peace agreement.
During a visit to Paris last week, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, who lost to Zelensky in the 2019 election and is a potential opponent in a future run-off, rejected the idea of holding elections during the war, saying the only "winner" of such a vote would be Putin. (A2 Televizion)
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