Although the lek is the official currency, the euro is used in the country as much as the local currency and this trend will continue. For the next year, the Bank of Albania plans to expand the foreign exchange reserve by 800 million euros.
From 5.7 billion euros at the end of September, it is planned to reach 6.3 billion euros next year. To understand the size of this stock, it is enough to remember that the entire budget for 2024 is about 7 billion euros.
"And to me that brings up exactly what's happening right now. The devaluation of the euro even outside the tourist season. The euro offer is very high", said Kliton Vaso, banking expert.
Based on a preliminary analysis, the Minister of Finance and Economy estimates that the amount of foreign exchange reserves for the next year will be sufficient to cover 7 and a half months of imports from 7.2 months currently.
On the other hand, the increase in foreign exchange reserves is another bad news for exporters. "This year exporters will consume the accumulated "fat". Next year, we can see layoffs and bankruptcies of these companies, based on the current exchange rate performance", says the expert.
The Ministry of Finance and Economy expects that the euro-lek exchange rate will not exceed the level of 110 lek for the next three years. In relation to next year's draft budget, "finance" predicts that one euro will be exchanged for an average of 109.5 lek until the end of 2026. For the banking expert, Kliton Vaso, the entire country's economy will be negatively affected by the exchange rate next year.
"Negative effects are on the horizon. So far it seems we have benefited from imported inflation. I continue to stand by the opinion that "the devaluation of the euro will quickly turn into a disaster".
In order to avoid a further fall of the euro, the Bank of Albania has intervened several times this year by selling currency from the market. The amount purchased until the end of September is estimated at 198 million euros from 140 that were withdrawn during the whole of last year. Experts estimate that in the conditions of an economy with low absorptive capacity, the high foreign exchange reserve may turn into an obstacle for the Bank of Albania to intervene in the exchange rate in the future. (A2 Televizion)
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