United States President Donald Trump expects Washington's allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to spend more money on bombs and bullets.
Trump's proposal to ask members to dedicate five percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense was rejected by many countries, but the demand for larger budget allocations is not expected to disappear.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has said spending may need to rise to 3.7 percent of GDP. Only Poland is currently above that level.
The current NATO member countries' defense budget target is 2 percent of GDP, which most members reached or exceeded in 2024.
The new spending target is likely to be approved at a NATO summit in The Hague in June. The proposal would require the agreement of 32 member states to pass.
European countries have increased defense budgets since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many leaders have said budgets should continue to increase even further to counter the threat of military buildup from Moscow.
But, implementing this idea is the hard part.
Many governments already face difficulties in public finances, overburdened pension systems, and voters dissatisfied with the governments' different priorities. Political uncertainty increases the complexity of the situation.
An analysis of the three largest European military powers highlights the extent of the obstacles to major investment in their armed forces.
Germany
In nominal terms, Germany is the biggest European spender, spending almost $98 billion in 2024, according to NATO data.
This amount corresponds to 2.12 percent of GDP, less than many other NATO members. Attempts to increase this percentage have been opposed and led to the fall of the German government in December.
The objections stem from a constitutional rule known as the debt ceiling. This rule limits the value of Germany's total debt and annual borrowing.
On a proposal to suspend the debt curb due to the extraordinary pressures on the budget – not just for defense – caused by the war in Ukraine, Germany's governing coalition failed to reach consensus.
The Ministry of Defense published plans for massive investments to make the German military “war-ready,” but Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was frustrated by the lack of funds.
Germans will now go to snap parliamentary elections in February, but defense is almost nonexistent as a campaign issue.
The Christian Democratic Union looks set to emerge victorious, and the promise to keep spending at "at least" 2 percent of GDP will not warm hearts in Washington.
Nicu Popescu from the European Council on Foreign Relations said that Germany's situation illustrates a broader problem across Europe.
"Politicians haven't had a serious conversation with their public for 30 years about the need for defense spending," he said. "Many are afraid to have that conversation. There's a political difficulty that prevents it."
France
France is an example of this difficulty. Political uncertainty has hampered plans to increase defense spending in the short term.
President Emmanuel Macron lost his parliamentary majority in snap elections over the summer, making it impossible for him to approve a budget for 2025 so far. This has left the defense budget at 2024 levels for now, leaving the planned $3 billion increase uncertain.
The main groups in Parliament have very different priorities for the budget. Both the left and the far right want more social spending, while the center-right wants tax cuts. And no one seems willing to compromise. The government could lose a confidence vote at any moment.
"Defense is never in question," said Olivier Costa of Sciences Po in Paris. "The whole topic is about political leaders aiming to win the next presidential election."
Meanwhile, France's financial situation is already at a delicate point. National debt has reached 120 percent of GDP, double the European Union's debt limit.
"France is worse than Germany in all economic indicators," Prime Minister Francois Bayrou said on January 14.
Costa said that "it would be very difficult in the current context to explain to citizens that more defense spending is needed."
Great Britain
Britain has one of the largest defense budgets in Europe. At around $82 billion, it spends 2.33 percent of GDP on defense. The country's political scene is more stable, as the new government has a large majority in Parliament.
But Prime Minister Keir Starmer won last year's election on a promise not to raise taxes and reduce borrowing.
He also promised to maintain spending at previous levels. This includes the defense budget, but also health, education, and transportation infrastructure.
Britain's national debt is currently at its highest level since the 1960s.
This means that there is a very limited opportunity to increase the defense budget.
In November, Starmer told Rutte that in the spring the government would "set out a path" to raise spending to 2.5 percent of GDP.
The lack of a timeframe for this commitment has been criticized, as has its ambition, which is far below the figure mentioned by Rutte./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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