There are already major diplomatic efforts, behind-the-scenes talks, and public stances taking place between Washington, Moscow, and Kiev to find a way to stop the full-scale Russian war against Ukraine, which began almost three years ago.
Now, another element has been added to this: US President Donald Trump wants to condition future US aid to Ukraine on greater access to Ukraine's "rare earth" minerals - minerals for which there is increased demand for batteries, computers, smartphones and electric cars, not to mention weapons.
"We are aiming to reach an agreement with Ukraine where they will secure what we have given them in exchange for their rare earth minerals and other things," he told reporters on February 3.
"I want to have security of rare earth minerals. We are giving hundreds of billions of dollars. They have good rare earth minerals. I want to have their security and they have the will to do so," he said.
The reaction from Ukraine? "We are not against it."
"We are open to the fact that all this can be developed together with our partners, who help us protect our land," President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a press conference in Kiev.
"This is absolutely right. I discussed this issue in September when we met with President Trump."
Rare earth minerals are a group of 17 minerals – for example, yttrium, cerium, lanthanum – that are found in small quantities on the Earth's surface. Demand for them is growing because these minerals are used in high-tech products.
The current race to produce smaller, lighter, more powerful, and longer-lasting batteries involves the use of rare earth minerals. Defense industries also need minerals for weapons and related technology.
Other rare earth minerals are used as chemical catalysts, in magnets, computer disks, or in generators.
The biggest obstacle to extracting rare earth minerals is that a large amount of soil needs to be excavated to extract enough of the minerals, because they are found in small quantities. These minerals then need to be separated, refined, before they can be used in technology or machinery.
Ukraine has significant amounts of rare earth minerals, according to the Geological Survey of Ukraine.
It also has other less rare, but larger, minerals that are also used for advanced technology and industries, for example lithium, which is widely used in various types of batteries, and titanium, which is used in the production of aircraft. According to some estimates, Ukraine's lithium deposits could be worth billions of dollars.
Trump may have also referred to these metals, but he did not make this clear.
Ukraine also has much larger deposits of other, more common mineral resources – coal, iron, oil, and gas – that bring significant revenue to the state, as well as represent great investment opportunities.
Many of these resources are located in parts of Ukraine that are occupied by Russian forces and could eventually end up under full Russian control.
The race to find, secure, develop and monetize rare earth minerals has been accelerating in recent years. Estimates for the minerals in North America total about 3.6 million tons in the U.S. and over 14 million in Canada, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. And the U.S. is the world's second-largest producer after China. Australia and Myanmar are also major producers.
But in 2023, China, which produces about 60 percent of all rare earth minerals in the world and processes almost 90 percent of them, shocked global markets when it announced it was imposing a ban on the extraction and production of rare earth minerals.
This announcement raised alarm in the West, where lawmakers and politicians worried that Western technology would be hit by a shortage of rare earth mineral supplies.
China escalated the situation further on February 3 - the same day Trump spoke to reporters - after imposing tariffs on a range of American goods in retaliation for tariffs announced by Trump over the weekend.
Beijing also imposed controls on the export of tungsten, tellurium, ruthenium and molybdenum: critical minerals that are important for high-tech production but are not classified as rare earth minerals.
Could Trump condition aid to Ukraine on access to rare earth minerals?
Ukraine is heavily dependent on the United States for weapons and equipment to help Kiev fight off Russian invasion. As of September, Congress had approved $174.2 billion for Ukraine-related purposes, with most of that going to the Defense Department and defense-related issues, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Trump, who has made ending the conflict in Ukraine a top priority, and his advisers have signaled that part of the negotiations will involve enticement and pressure to convince Kiev and Moscow to sit at the negotiating table.
Tying future American aid to Ukrainian concessions is key to this: convincing Kiev to give American investors more access to rare earth minerals and critical minerals could be a big part of the calculation.
Without American weapons, the Ukrainian army would be destroyed by Russian troops, who are more numerous and better equipped. It is unclear how long Kiev could hold its defensive lines without this help.
This is not the first time that Trump has conditioned US arms deals on concessions from Ukraine, specifically President Volodymyr Zelensky. During his first term as president, Trump faced impeachment in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives over a phone call he had with Zelensky. In that call, Donald Trump appeared to tell him that he would unblock US aid if Zelensky reopened an investigation into a Ukrainian energy company that had the son of then-Vice President Joe Biden on its board.
Lawyers had argued that a US president has no legal right to block funds that have already been approved by Congress.
Trump, who has denied any wrongdoing and described the conversation as a "perfect phone call," was acquitted by the Republican-controlled Senate.
This time, Republicans control both houses of Congress, so there is little chance of resistance in Congress to making US aid conditional. Moreover, President Trump and his advisers have embraced a more muscular approach to White House decision-making, arguing that Congress has less say in executive branch decisions.
Russia also has significant reserves of rare earth minerals and critical minerals, although its production capacities are considerably smaller than those of China and other countries.
Broadly speaking, anything that seems to complicate Ukraine's life seems like a good thing for Moscow, which knows that American weaponry has kept Kiev at war.
Russia, which has the upper hand on the battlefield, is positioning itself ahead of possible peace negotiations. This includes praise from President Vladimir Putin.
One of the Trump-led White House's negotiating cards has also been the threat to flood Ukraine with more American weapons - which would be bad for Russian troops and the Kremlin.
Asked by reporters about Trump's statements about rare earth minerals, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it appeared the White House was aiming to make Ukraine pay for aid from Washington.
"Clearly, this is an offer for Ukraine to buy American aid," he said./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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