Israel's devastating war in the Gaza Strip has weakened the fighting capabilities of Hamas - the Palestinian group designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.
But the militant group continues to be the dominant force in the Palestinian enclave, despite suffering heavy losses during the 15-month Israeli bombardment.
"Hamas is slowly regaining control, although it is quite weakened," said Nimrod Goren, director of the Jerusalem-based Mitzvim Institute.
Israel has vowed to continue the war in Gaza until it eradicates Hamas. However, the sides agreed to a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal on January 15.
Hamas carried out an attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people and kidnapping 251 others.
Israel's retaliatory war in Gaza has killed more than 46,000 people, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry. The war has also devastated much of Gaza and displaced the vast majority of the country's 2.3 million residents.
Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, lost most of its political and military leadership during the war. Its leader, Ismail Haniyeh, was killed in a suspected Israeli strike in Iran in July. His successor, Yahya Sinwar, was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza in October.
Israel claims to have killed up to 20,000 Hamas fighters during the war, but this figure has been disputed by the militant group, which has not said how many of its members were killed.
No alternative
Despite the losses, Hamas has maintained a firm grip on power in Gaza.
"Hamas doesn't need to be as strong as before, because it's still more powerful than any other alternative," said Jerome Drevon, an analyst at the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
Senior US officials have said that Hamas has recruited as many new fighters as it has lost during the war, although they are believed to be less experienced.
Drevon said that Israel's strategy to resolve the Hamas issue militarily has failed. The alternative, he said, is a political solution with the Palestinians.
But this is opposed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the far-right members of his governing coalition.
"For them, there are no political compromises," Drevon said of the far right in Israel. "It's all about achieving complete victory."
On January 19, Israel's far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, resigned from Netanyahu's cabinet in protest over the Gaza ceasefire deal. He said the deal would "destroy all of Israel's achievements."
Iran's ally
Drevon said that, despite surviving the war with Israel, "replenishing the arsenal will be more difficult" for Hamas, which has received financial and military support from Iran.
Israel has imposed a land, sea and air blockade on Gaza since 2007. It controls Gaza's 12-kilometer-long land border with Egypt and has repeatedly accused Hamas of smuggling weapons through underground tunnels from Egypt.
Drevon said Iran will likely continue to support Hamas, but the group's funding will no longer be a major concern.
"Iran's priority is Iran," Drevon said. "For them, what matters is reaching a new agreement with Western countries and the United States."
Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in years, having suffered a series of major blows.
During the difficult year of 2024, Tehran's regional influence weakened and its ability to deter its main enemies, Israel and the United States, was limited.
The Islamic Republic faces tough decisions after US President Donald Trump returns to the White House. The nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew the US in 2018 during his first term, also expires at the end of this year.
Even if Iranian aid diminishes, Hamas will likely remain the main player in the Palestinian territories, given how deeply rooted it is in Gaza and given the support it enjoys in the occupied West Bank.
"It will not be destroyed," said Drevon./ REL (A2 Televizion)
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