The German economy is weakening - however, skilled workers are urgently needed in many sectors: in the medical professions, especially nursing, in IT, construction and in skilled trades. There is also a shortage of kindergarten teachers, cooks and people who can drive trucks and buses, i.e. professional drivers. At the end of 2024, there were around 1.4 million unfilled jobs in German companies across the country.
At the same time, more and more immigrants are working in Germany. In 2024, the proportion of foreign employees was just over 16 percent. It has more than doubled since 2010. Employment in the medical professions is disproportionately high.
More than one in six doctors has foreign citizenship. In nursing, the increase in employment since 2022 has been exclusively due to foreign staff. Currently, one in five workers in this sector is an immigrant.
The possibility of leaving the country
But do these people really want to stay in Germany for a long time? The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) at the Federal Employment Agency has now presented a study on this topic. The study is based on an online survey of 50,000 people aged 18 to 65 who were born abroad and have immigrated to Germany. People who do not have a recognized residence status in Germany were not included in the survey. The survey period ran from December 2024 to April 2025.
"26 percent, or about 2.6 million people, say they have actually considered leaving Germany in the past year - that is, they have thought about leaving," summed up the figures Yuliya Kosyakova, head of the Migration, Integration and International Labor Market Research department at the IAB, at the presentation of the study in Berlin. "Around three percent, or 300,000 people, already have concrete plans to emigrate."
Germany just a stopover
About half of those who do not want to stay want to return to their respective countries of origin, the other half want to go to another country, where they think there are better conditions. Among those who are willing to return, Poland or Romania are mentioned most often. Migrants who want to continue their journey from Germany prefer Switzerland, the USA or Spain.
Refugees and those who came as part of family reunification show significantly lower migration tendencies than well-educated and economically successful individuals. "A key finding of our survey is that those who moved to Germany to work or study, who are better educated, more economically successful and have a better knowledge of the German language, are above average likely to consider leaving or express concrete plans to emigrate to another country," says IAB researcher Katia Gallegos Torres.
Emigration is a risk for Germany.
Immigrants with a master's or doctorate degree and higher incomes in particular have considered leaving Germany in the last 12 months.
"In knowledge-intensive service sectors, such as IT, finance and business-related services, between 30 and 39 percent of respondents have considered leaving," says Gallegos Torres.
There are also "relevant" migration trends in the healthcare, manufacturing and logistics sectors. "These are precisely the sectors where Germany urgently needs to secure qualified workers. This selective migration poses significant risks to Germany's future economic sustainability."
High taxes and growing discrimination
But what are the reasons why they want to leave? For those who want to return to their homeland, family reasons play a primary role. While migrants who want to move to another country mainly hope for better career opportunities and higher incomes.
High taxes and excessive bureaucracy in Germany are often cited as reasons for leaving. Added to this are experiences of discrimination. "Almost two-thirds of migrants report having experienced some form of discrimination, for example, in the workplace, in the housing market, in public spaces or in contact with the police," says Gallegos Torres.
"A third of migrants feel not at all or only somewhat welcome. And these are factors that significantly increase the tendency to emigrate."
Political problems
The welcoming culture has continued to decline in Germany. "In 2024, the debate was very much dominated by the topic of migration, and social acceptance was not particularly high," notes researcher Yuliya Kosyakova.
Just over a quarter of people in Germany have an immigration background. Around 21 million people have come to Germany since 1950. Around 6.5 million people have come to Germany since 2015. The largest groups among them are Syrians and Ukrainians.
In the federal elections in February 2025, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party with "re-emigration" principles, emerged as the second strongest party. The CDU/CSU coalition, which promised a stricter migration policy during the election campaign, ultimately came to power.
In the coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD), the first policy measure was to expand border controls. The possibility for well-integrated immigrants to obtain citizenship through an accelerated procedure was immediately abolished. "These big debates about migration and migration policy have a negative impact on people, on their sense of being welcome and on experiences of discrimination," said Kosyakova. "These are the reasons why people report that they are thinking about emigrating more often or are actually planning to leave Germany."
Germany can't afford immigration
Experts regularly estimate that Germany needs around 400,000 additional immigrants each year to stay permanently in the country in order to maintain its workforce. This is the only way to balance demographic trends.
Germany is an aging country. There is a growing number of retirees compared to fewer employed people. This not only leads to a shortage of labor, but also to a lack of income to finance pensions.
The IAB study shows that, against this backdrop, "not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is a key challenge," says Yuliya Kosyakova.
Motivation to stay
In general, there is evidence that government measures, such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying the recognition of qualifications, increasing digitalization and easing taxes, can reduce the tendency to emigrate, especially among professionally successful migrants, say IAB researchers. But "broad and fair" social acceptance is also needed.
Meanwhile, the CDU is calling for foreign medical students not to be allowed to leave so easily after they graduate. Those who study in Germany are expected to work as doctors for at least five years afterwards - in rural areas of Germany, where the shortage of doctors is growing. "Those who do not want to do this will have to pay some of the training costs," says Sepp Müller (CDU), deputy chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. The Health Ministry has supported this idea. "We should attract young doctors to work in Germany instead of watching them emigrate," explains Tino Sorge (CDU), State Secretary in the Health Ministry./DW (A2 Televizion)
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