Even if the fighting in Ukraine could end this year under pressure from US President Donald Trump, the security situation in Europe remains tense. Given the current pace of armaments, Russia will pose a "serious military threat" to NATO with conventional weapons by 2028, according to German security circles, the well-known German media outlet Die Welt reports.
The Kremlin will do everything it can to take control of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson, which were annexed in violation of international law, by 2026, German military analysts emphasize, writes A2 CNN.
Russia is already arming itself beyond the needs of its troops in Ukraine. “The Russian army has more tanks, more ammunition, more missiles, more drones every month. Production is increasing, stocks in warehouses are increasing,” Major General Christian Freuding, head of the Ukraine Situation Center at the Defense Ministry, told WELT AM SONNTAG. He stressed that it is far from certain that Russia is actually planning an attack. “But Moscow is clearly creating the conditions for this,” Freuding said.
Security circles say the Kremlin is largely making up for losses in personnel and materiel in Ukraine and may be building up reserves in certain areas. According to this, Russia now produces about 3,000 cruise bombs per month, which, depending on the model, weigh up to three tons, but thousands of precision bombs of the UMPB D type for long ranges of up to about 100 kilometers.
European intelligence agencies report that the Russian military is growing. According to them, Moscow is recruiting about 30,000 soldiers a month using high financial incentives. Last year, Putin ordered the army to grow to a total of 1.5 million active service members.
Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), chairwoman of the European Parliament's Security and Defence Committee, sees the Kremlin's armament as a "major threat" to Europe. "Russia has an impressive number of troops and a wide variety of powerful equipment," the well-known politician told Die Welt. However, the war in Ukraine has also revealed Russia's weaknesses, "especially in terms of logistics, outdated equipment and a significant lack of morale among soldiers."
According to German Major General Christian Freuding, NATO is already capable of repelling a Russian attack. “However, it is much more important to develop the strength within the alliance that is needed to ensure credible deterrence and thus prevent war.”
For Strack-Zimmermann, this obstacle stands or falls with Ukraine's survival. "If you want to keep the peace, you have to be able to defend yourself. If we ultimately don't figure this out and Putin is successful in Ukraine, attacks on a NATO member in four to five years are more than realistic."
CDU politician Roderik Kiesewetter emphasizes that Germany has a duty to increase investment in its security, where the capacity building of the armed forces starts with three percent of gross domestic product. Military analyst Lange summarizes the Bundeswehr's problems as follows: "We do not have our own ground-based interceptor weapons beyond the range of rocket artillery, we are not good enough in electronic warfare, the size and cost-effectiveness of our air defense are not right, and we are still completely clueless when it comes to drones," he concluded, writes A2 CNN. (A2 Televizion)
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