Russia is reducing its military presence in Syria, and is transferring some assets from the Middle Eastern country to Africa, satellite images analyzed by Radio Free Europe show.
Moscow appears to have withdrawn a large amount of military equipment from bases in Syria since the ousting of the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad - a longtime ally of Russia - on December 8.
Given the possibility of losing the air base it has in Hmeimim, and the naval one in Tartus, Russia seems to be increasing its presence in Libya, Mali and Sudan.
However, experts believe that African countries do not constitute practical alternatives.
Still, satellite images suggest that Russia is moving some military assets from Syria to Africa.
The loss of military bases in Syria would constitute a major strategic obstacle for Russia, which has used these spaces to project influence and strength in the Middle East and Africa region.
Moscow has said it is still in negotiations with the new government in Damascus over the future of military bases in Syria. However, experts estimate that the movements of Russian military equipment suggest that Moscow is preparing for a partial or complete withdrawal from Syria.
Russia has several bases in Africa, including those in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic and Sudan.
Experts believe that moving military equipment from Russia or Syria to Africa will be costly.
"To carry out important operations, Russia will have to pay a lot of money. Both for the air fleet and the naval fleet", said Roland Marchal from the Paris Institute for Political Studies.
It will be more difficult for cargo planes to leave Russia for Africa, loaded with heavy weapons. Refueling the aircraft with kerosene poses a significant challenge.
And all this can happen only if Turkey - regional rival - enables Russia to fly through its territory.
Despite all the costs, Russia appears to have started sending military assets from Syria to Mali and Libya, where 1,200 Russian mercenaries are stationed.
Satellite images show increased Russian activity at its naval base in Sudan.
Moscow has signed an agreement to open a military base in this African country, on the shores of the Red Sea, in 2019.
It is unclear whether this naval base is fully operational.
Analysis of the flights shows that Moscow is sending cargo planes to Libya, some from Syria and others from Russia.
Heavier than usual traffic between Russia and Libya has been reported in recent weeks, although it is unclear what planes were being transported.
A Russian Ilyshin Il-76 plane - a heavy cargo plane - left Russia for Libya on December 12, returned to Russia a day later, and immediately returned to Libya, according to official records.
Public flight records on December 16 show that an Ilyshin Il-76 plane flew from Russia, from the Moscow military base, to Bamako in Mali.
The plane returned to Russia the next day.
Cargo planes, which traveled from Russia to Libya, used the airspace of Turkey, a NATO member country.
The Washington-based Institute for War Studies said on December 12 that Russia's logistical challenges in reaching Africa "will increase Turkey's political advantage over Russia."
This Institute has also mentioned "the practical cost of supporting Russian operations in Africa, if Russian cargo planes will not be able to stop to resupply on the way forward". REL (A2 Televizion)
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