For more than 25 years, NATO's mission in Kosovo, KFOR, has provided security. But as US officials signal a possible reduction in their military presence in Europe, questions are also being raised: would American soldiers remain in KFOR, or would the Trump administration seek favors in return?
The US Department of Defense tells Radio Free Europe that, for now, there is no change in the positioning of their forces. But with ongoing tensions in the Balkans and changing global priorities, Kosovo must prepare for any scenario, former NATO officials say.
"Every KFOR soldier fully and clearly understands his duty to protect all citizens of Kosovo," declared on June 25, 1999, the then commander of the NATO peacekeeping mission, Mike Jackson.
This force began deploying to Kosovo that month, immediately after the signing of the Kumanovo Agreement, which forced the complete withdrawal of the Serbian army and police from Kosovo.
It initially consisted of around 50,000 troops, reaching around 4,600 over the years.
More than 25 years later, its mission remains the same: “maintaining a safe environment for all,” but the force’s future remains somewhat questionable.
A US Department of Defense official confirms to Radio Free Europe that, "at this time, there is no change in force positioning to announce."
But former senior NATO official Jamie Shea says that United States President Donald Trump is "transactional" and may ask Kosovo for favors in exchange for keeping troops.
"So, be prepared," Shea tells Radio Free Europe.
Former commander of the Kosovo Security Force, Kadri Kastrati, estimates that the country is currently unable to defend itself.
How did questions about American troops in Europe arise?
It was initially the US Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, who instructed Europe to prepare for a review and eventual reduction of the US military presence.
During a visit to Warsaw last month, Hegseth said its future would depend on global threats and American strategic priorities.
"That's why our message is so tough to our European allies. Now is the time to invest, because you can't assume America's presence will last forever," he said on February 14.
According to a document obtained by the American newspaper The Washington Post, Hegseth also ordered Pentagon and US military leaders to make plans to cut the defense budget by 8 percent in each of the next five years.
Another element was added to this debate by US Vice President JD Vance.
He criticized European leaders for rejecting the far right, while linking the future of US troops in Europe to policymaking on the continent.
Speaking at the Conservative Political Action Conference on February 20, Vance said Americans would not support keeping troops in Germany if people there could be imprisoned for offensive posts on social media.
"All of Germany's defense is subsidized by American taxpayers," he said.
The situation caused considerable anxiety among the allies across the Atlantic.
The man expected to become Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, said his goal will be to achieve independence from the US in terms of security.
"For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible," he said.
Trump, even during his first term as president, has repeatedly asked European allies to significantly increase their financial contributions to defense.
Asked during a press conference on February 18 whether he would be willing to consider withdrawing all US troops from Europe as part of a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for peace in Ukraine, Trump said:
"Nobody asked me to do this. I don't think we should do it. I wouldn't want to do it."
The presence of American troops in Europe
The United States has several operational and military bases in Europe.
The largest number of American soldiers - over 35,000 - is deployed in Germany.
This country also has the largest American air base - Ramstein - where over 16,000 military personnel, civilians, and contractors are stationed.
Apart from a temporary boost at the beginning of Russia's war in Ukraine, the US military presence in Europe has been declining since the end of the Cold War.
According to the US European Command, the total number of US forces in Europe has fluctuated between 75,000 and 105,000 as of 2022.
Of these, currently, around 63,000 forces are permanently deployed, while the rest are on rotation.
In Kosovo, the United States has about 600 soldiers as part of the KFOR mission, compared to over 5,000 in 1999.
Since that year, they also have Camp Bondsteel, which is located near Ferizaj, in southeast Kosovo, and serves as the largest US military base in the Balkans.
What does NATO say?
Radio Free Europe asked NATO if it has any plans to ensure that KFOR's presence in Kosovo remains unchanged, in the wake of the possible reduction of US troops in Europe.
The response he received, among other things, states that "American officials have made clear their commitment to the Alliance, including the US presence in Europe."
It also states that the US has made clear its expectations that NATO allies do more, invest more, and produce more, "in support of our shared security."
“NATO is constantly adapting to the changing environment... KFOR continues to implement its mandate - based on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 1999 - to contribute to a secure environment for all people and communities living in Kosovo,” a NATO official said, adding that “the US continues to play a fundamental role” within the KFOR mission.
Kosovo President Vjosa Osmani said in a meeting with KFOR Commander Enrico Barduani on March 4 that Europe is facing a complicated geopolitical situation and that “joint engagement with KFOR and NATO remains essential.”
“Be prepared”
Shea, who served in various roles in NATO until his withdrawal in 2018, does not expect immediate changes in the presence of American troops in Europe, and consequently in Kosovo, but says that the situation remains uncertain and should be monitored carefully.
According to him, the American contingent in Kosovo is small and "is not a major financial burden for the US, compared to American forces in Germany or Poland."
He also recalls that Trump, in the past, "has tried to play peacemaker between Belgrade and Pristina" and says that US troops in Kosovo "give the US greater leverage in this role."
"But Trump is transactional, and he may ask Kosovo what favors it can offer to keep [American] troops in Kosovo - especially in the form of business deals and investment opportunities. So be prepared," says Shea.
Moreover, he adds, the Pentagon's budget cuts will inevitably force the US military to make savings and redistribute its resources.
Why is NATO's presence in Kosovo important?
Nearly 26 years after the end of the war and 17 years after declaring independence, Kosovo is not recognized by Serbia and relations between the two countries remain tense.
Although they have been in negotiations for their normalization since 2011, the neighboring country continues to consider Kosovo as part of itself.
After an armed attack in the north of the country in 2023, Kosovo authorities accused him of attempting to annex this area inhabited by a Serb majority.
Serbia denied any involvement in that attack, but massed military troops on the border with Kosovo for several days.
The Kosovo Security Force does not provide information about its defense capacities, considering them sensitive, but its former commander, Kadri Kastrati, estimates that the country is currently unable to defend itself.
"Unfortunately, we are very far away, because there has been no investment," he tells Radio Free Europe.
"We are far from human capacity, infrastructure, equipment and weaponry," he adds.
The KSF is in the process of transforming into a regular army and is expected to have over 7,500 active and reservist members, up from around 2,500 currently.
Kosovo's Minister of Defense, Ejup Maqedonci, told Radio Free Europe late last year that Kosovo, in four years, has spent over 269 million euros on weapons purchases.
What is known is that the country has also secured weapons from two NATO powers: the US and Turkey, and that it also intends to build its own ammunition production factory.
Speaking about the importance of NATO in Kosovo, former Defense Minister Agim Çeku says that the security situation in the country has not changed substantially since the military alliance's intervention in 1999.
"NATO came to Kosovo because of Serbia's aggressive approach towards Kosovo and Albanians. Unfortunately, this approach has not changed yet. Serbia continues to treat Kosovo as part of itself and continues to harbor dreams of its return to Kosovo," Çeku tells Radio Free Europe.
Until there is an agreement on mutual recognition between Kosovo and Serbia, he says that the NATO mission, KFOR, will remain a key factor for security in the country.
"He is also a guarantee for the stability of the entire Western Balkans," says Çeku.
In a similar vein to Çeku, the former Minister of Defense of Albania, Fatmir Mediu, also expresses himself.
"The Balkans are of great strategic importance to NATO, especially because of their access to the Mediterranean and the Adriatic. But for Kosovo, NATO's presence is even more important - to guarantee its stability and prevent the destabilization of the situation by actors such as Serbia, Russia and China," he tells Radio Free Europe.
Could KFOR survive without American soldiers?
Former NATO official Shea says "yes."
"KFOR has been under Italian and Turkish command and the majority of the troops are European," he says, adding that "the Europeans have been managing Bosnia and Herzegovina themselves since 2004."
But, despite this, Shea argues that keeping American troops in Kosovo as long as possible is beneficial because, as he says, it ensures continued US attention.
“US boots on the ground keep Kosovo on the radar screen at the White House and the State Department, and help the US remain engaged in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue,” says Shea.
With increasing insecurity in the region - due to the trial of Republika Srpska leader Milorad Dodik and ongoing protests in Serbia - US forces serve as a stabilizing factor, he said.
How can Kosovo prepare for each scenario?
Mediu says it is time for Kosovo to align itself as closely as possible with NATO and the United States, "and not pursue internal policies that bring division."
"The country should take a proactive approach to NATO membership and deepen strategic relations with the US," he says.
Currently a member of the Albanian Parliament, Mediu also suggests the creation of a joint military force with NATO member countries in the Western Balkans - Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro - to build, as he says, a powerful defense mechanism.
"The stability of Kosovo and the entire region cannot be left to the mercy of fate," says Mediu.
Shea also emphasizes the importance of Kosovo engaging with the Trump administration at all levels, "to ensure that its interests are communicated accurately and surprises are avoided."
"Trump is unpredictable, so it's best to prepare for all scenarios," Shea says.
Considering the US president's transactional style of diplomacy, Shea adds that Kosovo should also identify areas for possible negotiations with him.
Business interests are always high, he says, citing the rumored agreement between the US and Ukraine on minerals as an example.
The need for this delicate balance, which determines Kosovo's security, was evident as early as 1999, when General Jackson - now deceased - refused the order of his American commander to block Russian forces when they entered Kosovo, without agreement with NATO.
"I'm not going to start World War III for you," Jackson reportedly told General Wesley Clark in June 1999.
If Jackson prevented it over a quarter of a century ago, why would safety today be left to chance?!/ REL (A2 Televizion)
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