At the beginning of the week, the American and Russian delegations sat down at the negotiating table in Saudi Arabia (24.03.), with the aim of ending the war in Ukraine. The specifics of the meeting were to secure a special ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, which would allow the resumption of grain exports from Ukrainian ports. The talks between the delegations lasted 12 hours, a record. But despite the long discussions, neither country was in a hurry to announce the results. Instead of issuing a joint statement after the talks, the US and Russia issued separate statements afterwards, with similarities, but with differences in some essential details.
Kremlin ties deal to lifting sanctions
Ukraine and Russia have reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the Black Sea and coordination of details on stopping attacks on energy infrastructure, the White House said. The Kremlin issued a statement confirming that the countries agreed to ensure the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It also mentioned that the US would help restore access to Russian agricultural goods to the global market.
The Kremlin said the ceasefire would only come into effect after certain conditions are met, if some sanctions against Russia are partially lifted. In particular, Russia is seeking the lifting of restrictions on companies involved in food exports and the banks that support them. The Kremlin is also seeking the lifting of sanctions on Russian-flagged ships that trade in food and fertilizers, as well as the lifting of restrictions on imports of agricultural equipment into Russia.
While the White House said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea after Russia issued its own statement, he hit back, accusing Moscow of lying about the terms of the negotiations. "There is something the Kremlin is lying about again: that the silence in the Black Sea is supposedly tied to the issue of sanctions," Zelensky said in his address to the Ukrainian people. In reality, he said, the ceasefire in the Black Sea was not linked to sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said lifting Russian sanctions would be a "disaster for diplomacy."
Risks of escalation are reduced
According to the White House, the agreement would “eliminate the use of force” in the Black Sea to facilitate maritime trade. The White House statement also said the US would “help restore Russia’s access to world markets for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions.” It is unclear whether this would include partial sanctions relief.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in televised comments on Tuesday that Russia wants to base this new Black Sea initiative on the previous grain deal, but warned that Russian interests must be protected.
Despite the apparent disagreements, experts told DW that the negotiating parties are likely to reach a ceasefire in the Black Sea soon. Political analyst Alexandra Filippenko, a Lithuanian researcher at the Institute for Canadian and American Studies, believes the agreement "is the biggest of several small steps forward." "It's not a huge breakthrough, but it is a step towards reducing the risks of escalation," Filippenko added.
According to the UN, the grain deal with Ukraine facilitated the export of 32 million tons of grain to 45 countries on three continents between July 2022 and July 2023. As UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said at the time, the deal was crucial for global food security.
Trump 'unlikely to blame Putin'
The mere fact that Russia issued its own statement with specific conditions has prompted US President Donald Trump to accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of obstructing a peace deal. In an interview with the cable news network Newsmax, Trump said the Russians are “dragging” a deal. Alexandra Filippenko sees Trump’s statements as a significant departure from his previous promises to end the conflict quickly. “In recent months, Trump’s attitude toward Putin has shifted from secret admiration, surprise, and the belief that Putin respects Trump and is ready to reach a quick deal, to now a more cautious and skeptical attitude,” Filippenko notes.
Meanwhile, political analyst Anton Barbashin believes that Donald Trump will make concessions to the Kremlin. According to him, Trump does not intend to criticize Putin for his unwillingness to make peace. "The US is investing a significant amount of time to achieve at least something, so I would assume that they will continue to try to fulfill at least some of Russia's promises in some way before saying that it is Putin's fault that nothing is working," Barbashin said. In fact, the situation looks quite favorable for Russia, according to Barbashin. According to him, a ceasefire in the Black Sea does not cost Russia anything.
The situation in the Black Sea
In a recent interview with the European Broadcasting Union, EBU, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine controls the situation in the Black Sea. "They (the Russians) have not controlled the Black Sea corridor for a long time. We are fighting for it because it is a step towards ending the war. We control the situation in the Black Sea," Zelensky said.
Alexander Paliy, a Ukrainian political analyst, told DW that over the past year, Russia has been pushed back in the eastern Black Sea and has been unable to carry out large-scale attacks in the region. He said Ukraine has achieved this through the use of naval drones. As a result, the grain trade is operating at more or less pre-war levels, Paliy said. He believes a new grain deal would be more beneficial for Russia.
"Ukraine could attack Russian ships involved in oil exports or other exports at any moment. However, (Ukraine) cares about environmental effects and the positions of countries like Turkey and the US are important. That is why Ukraine has been very cautious," Paliy emphasizes.
Russia's presence in the Black Sea is crucial to it not only for trade but also, as the Kremlin has repeatedly stated, for the country's security. Under international law, Russia owns only about 10% of the Black Sea's coastline. However, through its growing influence in the region, Russia effectively controls about a third of the coastline currently.
Russia has a military presence in Crimea, which it illegally annexed in 2014, and the internationally unrecognized republic of Abkhazia in the South Caucasus region has made this presence possible. In Russia, the military forces stationed in Abkhazia are seen as key to ensuring the security of Russia's southern borders./ DW (A2 Televizion)
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