When Europe shifts its focus, what happens to Kosovo?

In recent weeks, the idea of ​​a European mission in Ukraine has gained momentum. If realized, it could redefine security priorities in Europe, A2 reports. But how would NATO's presence in Kosovo affect it? Less attention, more risk, some analysts predict.

As Europe considers sending troops to Ukraine, another front comes into play: Kosovo.

With thousands of European peacekeepers deployed in the country, could it be that focusing resources and attention on the east leaves Kosovo more vulnerable?

NATO assures us that it is not. In a response to Radio Free Europe, an alliance official says that "NATO has long been committed to the security and stability of the Western Balkans. We will continue to contribute in this direction, along with other commitments that allies may make."

NATO's peacekeeping mission, KFOR, was deployed in Kosovo after the end of the war in 1999.

There are currently over 4,600 troops - the vast majority of them European. Italy leads with over 1,200, followed by other countries such as Hungary, Germany, Poland or Switzerland with hundreds of soldiers. 

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, there has also been a peacekeeping mission for decades, consisting of European forces.

With 1,100 soldiers and 3,500 other reserves, EUFOR has been providing support to the country's institutions in maintaining peace since 2004, when it replaced NATO forces.

NATO chief Mark Rutte was in Bosnia and Kosovo this month. Speaking to reporters in Pristina on March 11, he said NATO's commitment to the region remains strong to this day.

He said that the eventual deployment of European troops to Ukraine could influence the review of the foreign military presence in the Balkans, but did not say how or when.

"It's too early [to talk], because, first, an agreement for peace in Ukraine, or a ceasefire, must be reached before you can start maintaining it," Rutte said. 

Britain and France are leading efforts to assemble a military force that would be deployed in Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire.

This, after US President Donald Trump initiated talks on a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine - three years after the Russian state launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor.

"The UK and France are jointly leading plans to arrange security guarantees for Ukraine. We are doing this work together. We are working closely with partner countries and trying to create a coalition of the willing from Europe and beyond," said British Defence Secretary John Healey.

After a meeting of European leaders on March 27 in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron said they agreed to examine the specific legal issues surrounding any European security force for Ukraine and report back in three weeks.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the mission would not have been possible without US help, but the US was cool to the idea of ​​any military role in Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also said that the presence of NATO forces in Ukraine would be unacceptable for Russia - "under any circumstances," he said.

Some observers, such as Tim Less, from the University of Cambridge's Center for Geopolitics, do not expect this mission to be formed, precisely because of these objections.

Instead, Less expects Europe to fortify the states that are most concerned by the Russian threat, such as the Baltics, Poland, Romania, or Moldova.

"And, if you consider that the Balkans are on the front line to confront Russia, then I think we will see greater militarization, especially of Kosovo and Bosnia. But, if the first scenario happens, it would require some kind of reallocation of resources away from the Balkans, towards those other countries."

"In that case, a clear message would be sent to Serbia that it would not face opposition if it pushed forward its political goals," Less told Radio Free Europe's Expose program.

This opinion is shared by Hikmet Karçić, a research associate at the University of Sarajevo and author of the book "Torture, Humiliation, Murder: Inside the Bosnian Serb Camp System."

Shifting attention could create gaps in security, he said.

"Any violence that occurs in the region has the potential to spread from one country to another - to Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia. We have seen this in the past. But in recent years, it has been the focus of the West, of NATO, that has protected the region."

"In Kosovo, for example, the presence of foreign troops is the main reason why Serbia has not made any attempt - except for almost two years ago in Banjska - to physically attack it," Karcic tells Exposé.

Jeta Loshaj, a researcher at the Kosovar Center for Security Studies, expects the Balkan region to remain on Europe's radar and take its place in every defense plan it makes.

This, according to her, is also proven by the visit made by the NATO chief to Kosovo, and previously to Bosnia.

"We don't know yet whether [European] forces will be deployed in Ukraine. But if such a decision is made, it is fitting that Europe has invested in its military forces. We have also seen the plan to allocate 800 billion euros for defense. I think Kosovo would be included there," Loshaj tells Exposé.

Loshaj suggests that Kosovo's institutions remain in close communication with international allies - whether with NATO as a whole, or with its individual states.

She particularly appreciates the initiative for military cooperation recently undertaken by Kosovo, Albania and Croatia.

“[It] sends a message that Kosovo is ready to find ways not only to strengthen its capacities, but also to reflect on the current geopolitical situations,” says Loshaj.

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti, who is seeking a new governing mandate, this week promised over a billion euros in budget for the country's Security Force and reiterated that Kosovo will build its own ammunition and military drone factory.

Less, from the University of Cambridge, believes Kosovo needs to take two key steps to maintain the attention of its allies.

"One is to actively lobby the West, promoting the idea that Serbia is a threat to it and must be contained. And, under two, to invest in its security, building up its army, building up its arms stockpiles and so on - in case it has to confront Serbia directly and without outside help," says Less.

Karcic agrees that coordinated diplomatic and military strategies will be crucial in balancing these simultaneous security challenges.

According to him, the West should help Kosovo strengthen its military and security capacities, including increasing cybersecurity, to be able to protect itself from potential threats.

Bosnia says it should be encouraged to overcome its political divisions and take steps to strengthen its institutions and security capacities.

On the contrary, Karcic says that Russia would fill any possible vacuum left by the West.

"Russia, together with its supporters in Serbia and Montenegro, would ultimately try to hinder NATO's expansion in this area, as well as its integration into the EU. It would also make efforts to destabilize NATO states in the Balkans, such as Montenegro. We have seen these efforts in previous years, especially with Montenegro and North Macedonia," he says.

And, with a US administration signaling less involvement in European affairs, the Kremlin may feel less pressure for its actions, whether in Ukraine or the Balkans, says Professor Less.

"Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 was a kind of bombshell that exploded in international relations. Almost everywhere you look, you see some kind of Trump influence," he said.

In this uncertain climate, the challenge for Kosovo and the Western Balkans in general seems clear: stay on the radar, or risk being sidelined from the geopolitical game, analysts say.

But this requires a careful balance between domestic and international interests - something that is never easy, especially in a region like the Balkans./ REL (A2 Televizion)