Amid internal political uncertainties, with no government yet in place after the February 9 elections, and a changing geopolitical environment, Kosovo finds itself at a critical moment for its future.
There is uncertainty about the course that the country's politics will take, the approach to allies, the dialogue with Serbia and other important issues. Also at stake is the vital support of allies, with an unconventional president in the US, with criticism that has not been lacking in the address of the current prime minister.
To analyze the challenges facing Kosovo, A2 CNN spoke with Western Balkans expert and former CIA analyst David Kanin.
Mr. Kanin, as Kosovo has just marked its 17th anniversary of independence, how do you see the country's position today? Is it a consolidated state, with a stronger global presence?
I don't believe it. It is still not recognized by 5 members of the European Union and, of course, by Serbia, Russia or China. So Kosovo's sovereignty remains contested, just as it was when the unilateral declaration of independence was made in February 2008.
How did you see the recent elections in Kosovo? Prime Minister Kurti had high hopes for a decisive victory, but ended up losing votes compared to four years ago. What do you think contributed to this decline in support?
First of all, he has been in power for a long time. I think the opposition parties were more organized than last time. And of course the United States put pressure on Kosovars to vote against Kurti. Trump and those around him made it very clear that they would prefer a government that did not have Mr. Kurti at its head. However, even though Kurti lost votes, his party remains the most supported in Kosovo. So the election results were not decisive, demonstrating the limits of the ability of the United States and other foreigners to pressure Kosovo to vote the way the internationals would like.
Kosovo still does not have a government as the election results did not produce a clear winner. While Kurti's party secured the majority of votes, the opposition is hoping to form a coalition government. Do you think such a scenario is possible?
Yes, it is possible. It is not clear what will happen. I think that Mr. Kurti is definitely weakened by this situation, but he remains stronger than all his opponents. If all his opponents agree to form a coalition, let's call it a coalition in favor of the association of Serb-majority municipalities, because that is what the West wants, then this kind of government could be formed. But the question that arises is, how long would such a government last. Would it be stable or would the country have to organize new elections, relatively soon?
Prime Minister Kurti has been criticized for undermining relations with Kosovo's key allies. We have heard strong statements from US official Richard Grenell, who has described the Kosovo prime minister as an unreliable partner. Kurti insists that the US-Kosovo relationship has never been better. Do you think that is the case?
The relationship is definitely not very good. Despite what is being said, I think there is room for debate as to which ally is more reliable, Kosovo or the US. There is room for debate considering the behavior of the Trump administration since it took office and the problems that Mr. Kurti has had with all his foreign interlocutors. It seems that it is not very easy to deal with Mr. Kurti. But on the issue of dialogue with Serbia, his position remains popular with a significant number of citizens in Kosovo.
If Prime Minister Kurti secures a second term, how at risk will Kosovo's relations with the Donald Trump administration be? Or do you expect a change in Kurti's approach?
There will be tremendous pressure on Kurti from Washington to change his approach. Relations will not be good for one thing, as the Americans want Kurti out. If Kurti is re-elected prime minister, that will not please Washington. So the relationship would not be very friendly, at least to begin with. If Mr. Kurti changes his stance on the so-called dialogue significantly, that could improve things. But there is no guarantee that such a thing will happen.
How do you see Trump's potential approach to the Balkans in general? There is growing concern about the potential cutoff of US funding. Should the region prepare for a less supportive America?
The region needs to prepare for an America that is focused on many things other than the Balkans. It is not that they will not pay attention to the Balkans, but Balkan issues will be included in the framework of larger American geostrategic interests, whether they have to do with Ukraine, Russia, or other European issues. So it is not that the Americans will intentionally harm anyone in the Balkans, but the policies related to the American bureaucracy, the new government, the way it works, who is allowed to act in it, and American policy towards Russia and Europe, China and many other things will affect people in the Balkans. There may be unintended consequences for citizens and governments in the Balkans.
Mr. Kanin, the reform of the Albanian judiciary that resulted in the creation of a special structure against corruption and organized crime was supported by American funding. The suspension of funding by President Trump has fueled concerns that America is withdrawing and that the role of SPAK will be weakened. What is your opinion on this?
It could happen. It wouldn't be intentional, but again an unintended result or consequence from the American point of view, of all the things that are happening regarding the funding cuts to numerous departments of the American government, including those dealing with foreign affairs, humanitarian aid, and many other issues that affect people outside the United States...
We are seeing key players in the Trump campaign engaging in support of the opposition leader here in Albania, Mr. Sali Berisha. In your opinion, what impact could something like this have?
It could have a big impact on Berisha's ability to claim once again that he is the great politician in Albania, that he, he is the natural leader of Albania and the only leader of the Democratic Party in Albania. That could happen. I'm not sure it will have much of an impact on US bilateral relations with Albania, other than how the US approach to Berisha and the sanctions against him will affect Albanian politics.
Do you believe that Trump's return together with the new EU leadership can bring changes to the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue? Can Trump push towards a final agreement between the two sides?
They will certainly push for something like this. Trump wants to take credit for it. Of course, given the cold relations between the Europeans and the Americans at the moment, there will not necessarily be a united approach to the dialogue, but it will not be as hostile as it was regarding Ukraine. So there will be a kind of push, a reason for the Americans and the Europeans to appear as if they are cooperating better regarding the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue than regarding Ukraine. This will again lead to more pressure on Kosovo to accept the association of Serb-majority municipalities. This is also the essence of the so-called dialogue that the Americans and the Europeans have been pushing for unsuccessfully since 2013.
Do you see any possibility that Trump will bring the idea of exchanging territories back to the table?
The idea of territorial exchange had its moment in 2018. This happened in very special circumstances when Vucic and Thaci agreed on something, when two opponents agreed. We had an opportunity that the Americans took advantage of. But the Americans and the Europeans chose not to work on this, which in my opinion was a big mistake. Now the idea of territorial exchange will be more difficult to implement because now we no longer have Thaci in power. Let us recall that Mr. Grenell recently urged the court in The Hague to release him. I think that maybe he could come back, help form a government that does not include Kurti, and maybe resume the dialogue. Maybe the idea of territorial exchange could be revived. I don't know. However, the point is that things have changed. Things have changed in Serbia as well. President Vucic is now more endangered than ever since he came to power, in terms of his political supremacy. So, unlike in 2018, when the idea of exchanging territories was first proposed with an agreement between Thaçi and Vučić, now things are unclear in Kosovo about who the next government will be. And things are unclear in Serbia about Mr. Vučić's ability to hold on to power. All of these things will affect any effort to make the dialogue work. Because if you don't know the internal political situation in each of the countries, it's hard to know how to foster an agreement between them.
One last question. Considering the recent incidents in northern Kosovo, including the attack in Banjska and the act of sabotage against the water supply canal in Zubin Potok, do you see a risk of further escalation between Kosovo and Serbia?
I think what is important in this case is to remember that the opposition to Vučić for most of his term has been nationalists, not pro-democrats. Now, of course, the students in Serbia, the student-led protests, have the country in their hands. It is not clear what they will do politically, but Vučić has been greatly weakened by that spontaneous and very skillfully managed protest by the students. But the fact is that Banjksa happened, the attack on the water canal happened, and that is why the nationalists and pro-Russians are there in Serbia. It is part of the equation that is being ignored now because of the big focus on the protests, which is understandable. So I think it is a valid point. It is reasonable to mention the history of these attacks to remember that there are some very deadly-minded individuals in Serbia who have already tried to cause trouble in Kosovo and may try to do so again if they believe it is in their interest.
Mr. Kanin, thank you very much for being with us today and sharing your opinion. It was a pleasure.
Thank you very much for inviting me again... (A2 Televizion)
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