Three years after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the White House and the Kremlin announced on March 18 the achievement of a broad agreement aimed at ending the conflict that has killed and wounded more than 1 million men on both sides.
The agreement was announced after a nearly two-hour phone call between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. It was the second phone call of the Trump presidency and perhaps the most important yet.
Ukraine, facing great pressure from the White House, had previously signed the American proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, on the condition that Russia do the same.
What did Moscow agree to?
"My main conclusion here is that Moscow is quite comfortable with Trump, but for reasons other than those that almost everyone mentions," Nikolai Sokov, a former Russian diplomat who now works at the Vienna Center for Disarmament, told Radio Free Europe. "Moscow can negotiate with Trump, while Europe insists that its position is right and should be accepted without negotiations."
In terms of direct military action, the agreement changes nothing on the battlefield, where Russian troops have, until recently, continued to weaken Ukrainian defenses along a 1,100-kilometer front line.
Ukrainian troops are withdrawing from Russia's Kursk region, which they occupied nearly seven months ago, in an effort to ease the burden on parts of the front line and secure a bargaining chip for future peace talks.
An important element of the March 18 agreement is the focus on energy infrastructure.
Since at least November 2022, Russia has been severely damaging Ukraine's energy grid: power plants, transmission lines, transformers, and substations - a strategy aimed at exhausting and terrorizing Ukraine's civilian population.
In the face of these attacks, Ukraine has struggled to keep the lights and heat on, but has managed to cope thanks to local ingenuity and great support from the West.
At the same time, Ukraine has accelerated the development of its drone industry and even cruise missiles, which it has increasingly used to target Russia's energy infrastructure: oil refineries, pipelines, and military facilities.
Speaking at a press conference in Helsinki, Ukrainian President Zelensky, who has in the past expressed support for a ceasefire that excludes ground action, appeared to criticize the new agreement.
"We have always supported the idea of not hitting energy targets, as well as targets at sea, food production and transport," Zelensky said after a phone call between the Kremlin and the White House.
"Now, we need to understand what the details of this agreement are. We don't know them yet," he added.
"This could be a way to get closer to a ceasefire," Zelensky said. "Step by step. But the rest remains statistics of reality: hundreds of drones and missiles continue to fall not on the battlefield, but everywhere."
The basis for the ceasefire was reached in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, after meetings between Ukrainian and American delegations. Two days later, Putin responded to the proposal with a response that could be defined as "yes, but."
"During the conversation, Donald Trump proposed that the parties to the conflict mutually refrain from attacks on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days," the Kremlin statement on the March 18 call said. "Vladimir Putin responded positively to the initiative and immediately gave the Russian military the appropriate order."
The limited ban on attacks on energy facilities in Ukraine – and in Russia – is a victory for Kiev.
However, it could end up being an even bigger victory for Moscow, Sokov said.
"Note that for 30 days, Russia will continue to produce weapons and will be able to resume large-scale attacks if necessary," he told REL.
"Meanwhile, Ukraine will not be able to fully repair the damage to its energy infrastructure, of which it has lost a third, according to various estimates," he added.
What was not said?
What was missing from the talks – at least in public statements from the Kremlin and the White House – was any mention of Ukraine's Zaporizhia nuclear power plant, which is the largest in Europe and which US envoy Steve Witkoff had said could be at the negotiating table.
There was no mention of the US recognizing Ukrainian Crimea, annexed by Moscow, as Russian territory, something that had been said could happen.
Nor was there any mention of Ukraine's ambitions to become a NATO member, which Moscow strongly opposes and has even cited as justification for its decision to invade it in February 2022.
The White House statement mentioned broader geopolitical issues — a nod to a position Moscow is supporting: that any deal with Washington must be a broader agreement that also touches on issues unrelated to Ukraine.
This is a recurring theme for Putin, who has used the term "root causes" - a shorthand for the Kremlin's dissatisfaction with the entire post-Cold War international relationship.
But expanding the talks beyond Ukraine itself was something that Trump's successor, Joe Biden, opposed.
"The leaders agreed that the move towards peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations to implement a naval ceasefire in the Black Sea, a complete ceasefire, and permanent peace," the White House said.
"These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East," she announced.
"They also discussed the need to stop the proliferation of strategic weapons and will engage with other countries to ensure the broadest possible application," the statement said. "The two leaders shared the view that Iran should never be in a position to destroy Israel."
It is also not clear whether the subtle difference in wording between the communiqués is significant: "energy infrastructure" according to the Kremlin versus "energy and infrastructure" according to the White House.
And the proliferation of strategic weapons – nuclear or otherwise – has been an easy goal that Washington and Moscow have shared in the past, until mistrust and political suspicions crept into the effort.
The two states – which hold the world's two largest nuclear arsenals – are still bound by the last major arms control treaty between them, although it is set to expire next year, and there has been no effort to begin talks on a successor treaty.
Ultimately, however, the expansion of the scope of the talks fits into the Kremlin's broader hopes for a broader reworking of international rules: Moscow's desire to be treated as an equal by the United States - as it was during the Soviet Union./REL (A2 Televizion)
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